-4- One must also consider the genetic risk. The same BSEIR Report estimated that the total incidence of all identified serious genetic diseases due to 5 rem per 30 year reproductive generation to the U.S. population would be between 1,100 and 27,000 per year at equilibrium. In addition, there would be an inorease of becveen 0.5% and 5% in the ill health of the population. Since my Bikini exposure assumption is equivalent approximately to 5 rem/generation to 1,000 people, the BEIR Report genetic effect estimate must be multiplied by 1,090/200,000,000 = 1/200,000 Thus, one coulé expect between 0.005 and 0.14 serious genetic eiftects per vear, or up to 1 serious genetic effect every 7 v@ars. Again, ior reasons noted in the report by Tamplin and me che upper limiz estimate should be used. In summary, based on the assumptions I have made, the combined risx would be 1 cancer every 10 years and one genetic effect every 7 years plus a 0.5% to 5% increase in overall i11 heaita. Tais rather simple illustrative calculation does not include wnat is undoubtedly a minor correction to account for differences in the age distribution of seople of Bikini and the U.S. vopulation (1967 statistics). Also, not included is the risk associates with internally deposited radioactivity. Derending on the case involveé it may be appropriate to roughl:' dousle the risk estimated above to include the internal vadiation extisire resulting from the fooc chain. One can make ns for diiferent assumptions about tne dose rate and <=nea number of people involved. presented with tn1s type of The people of Bikini estimate could decide whether it is