DASA 2019-2 322 WOLFE: Do you mean the enemywill lose half of the effect of his attack by telling them? AYRES: Do you, after all these years, believe in a surprise attack out of the blue? WOLFE: I helieve it. DUNHAM: Let's define what we mean by a surprise attack. Do you mean an attack in which there's no sign in advance that anything is going to happen? AYRES: Yes. WARREN: AYRES; Today or tomorrow? Right. HEMLER: Yourfirst knowledge is that the weapons have hit? WARREN: Yes. DUNHAM: Suppose there was a condition in Hawaii where there wa.s a build up and the Army there had a good plan and everybody was set and unfortunately the precise instant was not known? AYRES: You may not know the precise instant but even so you should be alert because you are waiting for trouble and therefore you should be listening to the radio. TAYLOR: Say a tactical warning would be ignored. You didn't pay any attention it; it was tense in the sense that it could logically lead to a nuclear attack all of a sudden. HEMLER: And it was the beginning of tension, FREMONT-SMITH: 1! don't think you can make an arbitrary statement of this sort. [think you don't know what might have come and “when you don't know, therefore it could have happened. AYRES: I don't believe that there was the slightest chance, at the time, that the Cuban situation could have led immediately to an attack, It certainly could have developed into a more tense situation, which might have developed into something.