SESSION VI 323 FREMONT-SMITH: I don't believe there's agreement in this room with you. AYRES: You expected an attack any moment? FREMONT-SMITH: No. I happened to be out of the country at the time; I didn't know anything about it, but I'm sure that many people had no idea. But I don't think it's 4 question of any definite relationship between people expecting an attack and the reality as to whether there is a possibility of an attack, AYRES: Mypoint is that the real possibility was much less than the expectation. If you do expect the possibility, then you'll pay attention to tactical warning. HEMLER: I think it should be pointed out that at the highest levels, at the military and the governmental and the civilian levels, there was just what you were saving; there was a belief that an attack was not imminent, : ‘ TAYLOR: What's it going to take to make people believe that it is imminent? I wish someone would describe. .. AYRES: The use of a nuclear weapon somewhere in the world, for example. TAYLOR: : That's a much more tense situation. UPTON: For instance, we learned that in the recent Middle Lat crisis the hot line was in use for an extended time. Something might have touched off an international incident there involving the major powers. I think all of us watched developments very closely, but I'm not aware that there was any attempt to put civil defense on the alert, AYRES: It just wasn't tense in those terms. You protably just haven't thought through how much more tense it can get before the bombs start dropping. UPTON: When do you begin to alert your civil defense? FREMONT-SMITH: 1. PTON: When it's 50 percent tense? When you have noticed that the missiles are aloft?