the depth. Using the fitted expressions for
radius and depth, as in Figs. 3.5 and 3.6, as-

craters characteristic of Eniwetok. It will
apply only to Eniwetok and is probably influenced strongly by the geologic structure. It
can be only a rough description in view of the
paucity of experimental points, and because of
the mixture of tower and surface shots. Probably neither in magnitude nor shape are the results apptfcable to other conditions; it can
reasonably be hoped for an uncertainty of only
a factor of 2 in any general rule which might
be deduced.
Figure 3.5 shows an estimate of the crater
radii as a function of yield for the four shots.
These are fairly certain only on the Greenhouse Easy and Ivy Mike craters, which were
setat 600 ft and 3600 ft, respectively. A value
of
for the Greenhouse Dog crater appears
reasonable from the flatness of the profile near
_ and the choice of
for the George

suming the conical shape for theoretical rea-

sons in Sec, 1.1 and with whatever empirical
justification occurs in Figs. 3.1 to 3.4, the
volume for an Eniwetok crater becomes
Vv.

tainty quoted. The volume for the Easy crater

has been estimated by the author as 1.13 x 10°

cu ft, in comparison with 1.14 x 10° from Eq.

3.3. At the same time, A. L. Embry has estimated the volumeof the Ivy Mike crater to be

1.15 x 10° cu ft, in comparison with 1.52 x 10°

cu ft from Eq. 3.3, which is considered reasonable agreement. The volumes for Dog and
George appear
, if any-

thing, but are subject to too great experimental
uncertainties to justify a comparison.

3.3

(3.1)

and sand deposition lead to uncertainties con-

siderably larger than this for the case of
Greenhouse Dog and George craters.
Figure 3.6 has a similar plot in which the
depths are obtained from Figs. 3.1 to 3.4. On

200 to 1 in 30, increasing in steepness with

larger yields, at least at Eniwetok.
Report LA-1529 was principally concerned

with the possibility of triggering a major geo-

this plot, the depth for Greenhouse Easy crater

is fairly certain; the Greenhouse Dog crater is
presently morelikely too shallow than too deep
because of the debris within the crater. Similar
remarks apply to the George crater becauseof
the deposition of sand. The Ivy Mike crater has
been plotted with an effective depth of 120 ft and

logic failure at the Atoll which could, in turn,

generate a tsunami of oceanwide proportions.'

raters of depths like 100 ft do not involve
sufficient volumes to result in such a catas.tréphe. On the other hand, one would feel considerable concern over a predicted depth of

regarding the deep hole as a fluctuation intro-

W%
D= 4 ft

(3.2)

Owing to variations in the soil, the volume is
likely to be a better average than the radius or

FURTHER RESULTS

Some results of these curves are of interestz
Without recourse to a definite comparison,it
is clear that the craters from nuclear explosions are much shallower than craters from
TNT explosions. For nuclear explosions, the
slopes in the craters are in the order of 1 in

where W is in kilotons. The uncertainties are
also shown and seem to be of the order ofat
least 25 per cent, although the questionsoffill

by

(3,3)

which seem justified within the limits of uncer-

high-tide line has been shifted inward to distances like this on the southeast side of the
island. A line of slope 1/3 has been passed
through these points in such a waythat the
mean crater radius is expressed in the form

duced by geologic structure. The uncertainty in
depth is a factor of 2 as indicated on the figure.
A line has been passed through the points in
such a way that the maximum depth is expressed

3

The validity of the various assumptions and
‘the fitting process for radius and depth are best
judged by an examination of Figs. 3.1 to 3.6,

crater is supported only by the fact that the

R= 160 W"ft

4

olume = 6700 Wit

N

1000 ft for the crater and, according to Fig.
3.6, this would occur for a surface burst in the
order of 250 Mt, However, from Fig. 3.5, the
crater radius for such a burst is approximately

2 miles, and the danger could probably be
averted for such a large explosion by firing it
on a barge in the lagoon 2 miles or more from
the reef,

Another item of interest is the high probability of breaching the reef during
shot of
the Castle series in the spring of 1954. This

shot, expected to be in the order of 6 Mt, will

Page (Gn ROMCobia,

Select target paragraph3