consideration must be giveen io, and ‘recomnendaticiis arrived aby
fer the following contingencies: .
:
1. The Sovict Union tests a thermcnucle: weapon or
device befere the United States dces, and anneunces the test
oricr tc its detection by the United Statese .
2. The Soviet Union tests a. thermonuclear Weapen cr
device befcre the United States does, dees not announce the
test, and the United States has detected ite
3.
The Seviet Union cla1ims, or inspires rumors to the
effect, that it has tested a thermonuclear weapon or device
but the United States has no evidence to substantiate these
cleims or rumors.
h.
The Soviet Union tests a thermenuclear weapon or
device after the United States dces, with or without: an-
nouncing ite
1.
.
The Scviet Union tests a thermonuclear weapon or device before
the United States does and announces the test pricr to its.
detection by the United States,
The above contingency would place the United States in a dif-
ficult vesitien vis-a-vis the United States public, our friends and
allies abread, and neutrals. It may be a week or ten days after the
test before the United States will he certain that a nuclear event
had taken place in the Soviet Union, and even lcengsr to determine
whether cr not there was any large-scale thermenuclear reaction
é
associated with it. During this“period, the United States weuld !
literally be in a pesition ef being unable ocither te confirm or
-to deny Seviet claims, Because of this fact, the United States
would be cunsiderably handicapped in deciding how to mininize
the political and psychelogical disadvantages, buth at neme and
|}
4
4
\
abroad, ef such a Soviet anncuncenent. if the United States were
|
to remind the public of its cwn progress in this field pricr to
certain kncewledge that the Scvicts had in fact tested a thermonuclear
weapon or device, the impression might be created that the Scviet
announcement was an accurate one. Nevertheless, it is sugecsted
that this may be the only course open to us. Then, if the United
States is able tc determine that a Soviet test involved a thernonuclear reaction, the groundwork would have been laid for indicating that the United States is not behind the Soviet Unison in