The records search confirmed a total of 5,113 deaths from all causes.

This number represents 11.1 percent of the study cohort, and when compared to
U.S. mortality rates is 83.5 percent of the number of deaths that normally
would be expected.
Mortality in this cohort from accidents, acts of war, and other external
causes was 6 percent higher than that expected, using U.S. population rates.
On the other hand, the 1,046 cancer (including leukemia) deaths were only
84 percent of the number expected, and the 2,579 deaths from other diseases
were only 69 percent of expectation.
series was examined separately.

Similar results emerged when each test

However, a statistically significant excess

number of deaths from prostate cancer (not thought susceptible to causation by
radiation) was found among the Operation REDWING participants.

As a check on the methodology used in the study, the SMOKY participants
at Operation PLUMBBOB were subjected to the same mortality ascertainment
procedures used for participants at other shots and test series.

The sizeof

the cohort increased to 3,554 participants, slightly higher than that of the
CDC study, and 10 leukemia deaths were found.

This incidence, 2.5 times the

expected number (3.97), is considered statistically significant.

No cancers

other than leukemia were found in excess, and the total number of cancer
deaths (67) was less than the number expected (83.8) using U.S. population
rates.

These results parallel those reported earlier by CDC and lend credence

to the methodology pursued in the NRC study.
The following conclusions, quoted from the published findings, resulted
from the study (7):
1.

The finding by Caldwell et al. that an excessive number of cases of
leukemia has occurred among former participants at Shot SMOKY of the
PLUMBBOB series was confirmed.

2.

No evidence was found that leukemia mortality was increased among
participants at PLUMBBOB tests other than SMOKY or among participants
at UPSHOT-KNOTHOLE, GREENHOUSE, CASTLE or REDWING.

3.

Generally accepted estimates of the rate of excess leukemia induction
per rem when applied to estimates made by DNA of the radiation doses
to participants result in an expected increase of leukemias among
SMOKY participants of less than 0.2 case. The observed excess

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