in NV From the analysis of uncer fainty in population-average dose, the relati 2} ® between cumulative exposure time t a confidence limits of D(t) uncertainty a 15 1 Figure 21 was calculated. Figure 22h how uncertainty in D(t) is predicted fo become effectively independent of time after ~5 y of E ; g © - 3 os _ o a ° 5 a 3 Go R o Rongelap residence, by which timd residual 10 15 2 £42 30 Time (y) interindividual variability in expected dose from hypothetical residence on Rongelap Island starting in 1995 as ratios of the corresponding value the that D(30) > 1.0 cSv is ~1% (Figure $B). Based Figure 19. Two-tail 95% confidence limits on population-average and is characterized by confidence lint: a factor of 2 of (D(t)). In particular, of this dose (horizontal line) at specified residence times. lving 500 people starting in 1995, the charactegization of uncertainty in population-average dofe implies the population-average lifetin D(Lifetime) shown in Figure 24, whi and an 87% chance (i.e., it is more kely than not) that zero cancers will arise as < @ 9° Cumulative fraction ah fallout-related exposures on Rongelap 2 o Ny o > 2° nn be available. It is not clear, howeve local-foods-only assumption would best be reflected in an analysis of unde variability of the type conducted hert this assumption is substantially at 0.5 1 1.5 2 25 3 Maximum expected 1-y dose (mSv) Figure 20. Estimated distributions of interindividual variability in the lifetime maximum of expected annual doses corresponding .to hypothetical residence on Rongelap Island starting in 1995. Distributions corresponding to the LLNL imports-available model diet (bold curve) and a hypothetical local-foods-only diet assuming twice the local caloric intake shown in Table 20 (light curve) are shown. by a factor of two). As discussed] above in reference to Figure 18, a local-foods that assumed twice the caloric inta corresponding LLNL model diet approximate 5-fold increase in expectPd dietary dose and 3.3-fold increase in expected 1-y dose to potential 1995 Rongelap ree 49