Table 2.—Age Distribution by Sex in 1962 of Members of Latter Day Saints Families Compared With Age Distribution
of Utah Mormons in 1971°
Matec Age, yr

Femeie Age, yr

O14

18-44

4554

5564

65-74

#£75+

Total

O14

144

4554

55-64

65-74

75+

Total

Utah Mormons,
*1,000, 1971

122.1

175.6

32.2

26.2

14.5

10.0

380.6

123.4

181.0

36.1

28.5

19.6

13.3

400.9

Southwestern
Utter, 1962

533

956

260

187

110

56

2,131

§a1

937

248

14§

a7

38

1,004

18

47

35

20

14

3

134

18

43

25

13

6

0

105

Fatout-effects

group, 1962

"Latter Day Saints families consisting of those listed in both 1961 and 1962 directories of communities in southweetemn Utah. Some of the families could! not be

located in thia 1961 survey and are not included in this table or in the survey of cancer incidence. The study area inctudes St George, Kanab, Parowan, Paragonah,

Gunlock, Hurricane, tvins, Leeds, Santa Clara, Weahington, and Veyo, Utah; Fredonia. Ariz; and Bunkerville, Nev. In some cases, reapondents were uncertain of exact
age of some family members. and these were piaced in the broad age categories above by position in the family. Age distribution of Utah Mormons from Lyon JL,
Gardner JM, Weet DW: Cancer incidence in Mormona and non-Mormona in Utan during 1967-1975 (JMC! 1980;65: 1085).

population was too small to follow annual
cancer incidence rates. Cancer incidence
data for all Utah Mormonswereavailable
for a nine-year period (1967 through 1975),
and 2 nine-year periods were selected for
study of the cohort. Assuming that subStantial radiation doses from fallout
might have been sustained by the major
part of the study population by 1953, an
increase in leukemia incidence could be
evident by 1958, and so an early period
(1958 through 1966) was selected. Other
cancers of more radiosensitive organs
have longer latency periods, and the latest
nine-year period available for study was
selected (1972 through 1980). This design
provided internal as well as external controls. Cancer incidence in the early period
may be compared with cancerincidence in
the later period, as well as with the control
population (all Utah Mormons). Cancer
incidence in the early period for the subgroup complaining of fallout effects may
be compared with that for the subgroupin
the later period, with the study population
as a whole, and with all Utah Mormons.
Furthermore, the ratios of cancer of more
radiosensitive organs to all other cancer
may be compared between the study and
control populations.
Cancer incidence in the study population, the fallout-effects group, and the
comparison group (all Utah Mormons)
were age adjusted by the direct method,
with the 1970 US white population as a
standard. Expected case numbers were
calculated for each category by the average annual age-adjusted cancer incidence
rate for Utah Mormons divided by the
average annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rate for the study population, times
the number of cases of cancer in the study
population (Table 1). Although the hypothesis to be evaluated is that there may
be an excess of cancer of the more radiosensitive organs in a population exposed to
radioactive fallout, a more conservative
two-tailed test of significance was selected
(Table 1).
Cancer registry data could not be used
JAMA, Jan 13, 1984—Vol 251, No. 2

in this cohort study (1951 through 1980)
because the registry was not established
until 1966, fifteen years after the testing
of nuclear weapons began. The registry
could not be used to establish a specific
high-risk cohort in 1951 and follow it
through time. Registry data include larger
populations that have immigrated into the
area in recent years with smalier, more
recent exposures to fallout and insufficient time to permit any latent cancers to
appear. Many early residents would have
left the area and had cancer develop
elsewhere.

RESULTS
The age and sex distribution of the
study population in 1962 is compared
with that for all Utah Mormons in

1971 (Table 2). Although 59.3% of

women in the study group were of
childbearing age in 1962 or the decade
before (1,183/1,994), compared with
53.8% for all Mormon women in
Utah,only 27.5% of the study population are children, compared with 31%
for the state, an apparent deficit in
the fallout area for 1948 through 1962
of about 20%.
Average annual age-adjusted cancer incidence rates in Mormons in
southwestern Utah in 1958 through
1966 and in 1972 through 1980 are
compared with all Utah Mormonsin _
1967 through 1975 (Table 1). The ratio
of cancers of the more radiosensitive
organs (identified in studies of Japanese survivors) to other cancer in the
study population in 1958 through 1966
is compared with that ratio in the
same population in 1972 through 1980
and to that for all Utah Mormons in
1967 through 1975. In addition, cancer

of certain other organs thought to be
sensitive to radiation are considered
separately. These are cancer of bone
and brain and malignant melanoma.

There was an excess of 42 cases

(P=.01) of all cancer in the early

period (1958 through 1966) and an
excess of 67 cases (P=.01)" in the
later period (1972 through 1980). The
excess cases reflected principally an
increase in the incidence of cancer of
more radiosensitive organs. Most notably, there were 19 cases of leukemia
(P=.01)" (3.6 expected) in the early

period, and this persisted into the

later period, with 12 cases observed

(P=.01) (3.4 expected). An early
excess of cancer of the thyroid gland
(6/1.4, P=.01)" was followed by a
sharp increase later (14/1.7, P=.01)."°
There was a borderline increase in
lymphoma in 1972 through 1980 (10/
5.2, P==.040). The incidence of cancer
of the breast was unremarkable in
1958 through 1966 (8/8.8), but a sharp
increase was noted in 1972 through
1980 (27/14.2, P=.01)."° There was a
persistent excess of cancer of the
upper GI tract (4/1.5 and 4/2.0) that
was not significant. The incidence of
cancer of the stomach showed an
early increase (9/1.8, P=.01)* that
persisted later (5/2.8). An excess
number of cases of cancer of colon
occurred later (14/8.1, P=.087). No
increase in incidence of cancer of the
lung was observed. There were more
brain tumors, cancer of bone, and
melanoma than expected in the early
period (5/1.6, P=.05; 3/0.3, P=.01";
and 3/1.9, respectively) and this persisted (4/2.3; 5/0.4, P=.01"; and 9/2.6,
P=.01", respectively).
The subgroup of239 persons (134
males and 105 females) who reported
effects from fallout had a much higher incidence of cancer (Table 1). In the
early period (1958 through 1966), cancer developed in 31 (P=.01)" (only five
cases expected) and cancer developed

Cancer and Radioactive Fallout—-Johnson

233

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