distribution for various distributions of the input parameters, we could see

the sensitivity of the dose distribution to these input distributions.

If it

turned out that the input distributions had to be extremely and unrealistically
variable before the value 3x rule broke down, this would be at least somewhat

encouraging.
My initial ideas on how to set up the simulation study are as follows |

(1 use Bennett's model to illustrate, but the same general scheme could be
used on the other models LLL is using):

1.

Restrict attention initially to a population of 36 adult women
living on Enjebi under famine conditions, where all coconut and
other "natural” foods were obtained on Enjebi.

That is, choose

what LLL currently considers to be the worst possible case,

Use the actual diets obtained for the 36 adult females interviewed
by Pritchard.

For each such female we have an estimate of the

grams of food eaten per day for each type of food.

We make the

assumption that these survey results are representative of the

entire population of Enewetak adult females.
at this point.

There are two options

We could use the exact same dietary intakes obtained

in the interview, i.e., treat them as constants, or we could assume
that the survey result for a given food is the mean of a statistical
distribution with some variance (after all, there is certainly error
' involved in estimating daily intakes of food).

I prefer the latter

approach, but then we must decide what statistical distribution to
use and the parameters of that distribution.

Initially one might

assume a normal distribution with mean equal to the reported survey
result and a standard deviation approximated by (b-a)/6, where a and
b are imposed lower and upper limits on the distribution (g/day intake

for a given food is on the abscissa).

Li
a

b

The value of a and b might be initially taken, e.g., to be plus and
minus 50 percent of the survey result.

With more thought on this, LLL

might be able to come up with more likely values for a and b.

Select target paragraph3