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DASA 2019-2
nuc.ear explosives by people that don't need to identify themselves
to have their purposes served. The reason [ think this is extremely
important, and even has some bearing on our meeting here, is that
one way in which deterrence—which I think all of us would agree has
produced the stability that has existed since 1945 with respect to
general nuclear war—might fail is that the attacker be unknown.
soon as the attacker is not known,
As
the whole concept of deterrence
disappears. One wayfor attacker not to be knuwn is for the attack
to be based on purposes that are well served if the attacker doesn't
have to identify himself.
[have followed to some extent in the footsteps of Fritz Awicky in
using what are called morphological outlines to try to sum up the
number of ways in which a threat might be made without the threatening organization being identified, and my outline at the moment is
capable of generating 1035 possibilities. So I'm somewhat dismayed
about any notion of control that requires understanding all of the
things that people might do.
I think we have to understand what the end effecta may mean, I
think this is part of what this conference is about, and [ think we also
have to find a way to keep the basic material out of the hands of people who could use it for their own purposes, That's what I'm upto,
AYRES: I would be delighted to pass up my opportunity to talk
and hear you explain this factor of 1035,
TAYLOR:
Well,
that can be done at some point.
Do you want me
to explain it now’
AYRES:
Maybe not.
Myname is Robert Ayres. { suppose I ought to start at the beginning. [thought of starting at the end. I studied mathematics and
physics despite the fact that Ican't multiply. I spent several years
jumping from university to private industry and back to university.
I went to the Hudson Institute in 1962 and spent four years there
spending most of that time worrying about longerange effects of
nuclear war. This was work supported by the Office of Civilian
Defense.
Parenthetically,
I might add that the only reason I knew about this
proposed series of conferences and, as far as { know, the only inforrniation that DASA had about the OCD (Office of Civil Defense), came