. . ..”$ ..“ II. the number of births, deaths and the magnitude of the Bikini To estimate population POPULATION ESTIMATES after 30 years Islands Five Year Health Plan prepared by the Trust Territories’ the Marshall Department information was used from the final draft of of Health Serv: ces’ Office of Health Planning and the Resources Department. indicates The document is undated, but the presence of data from 1976 that it must have been prepared in the when we received it. It was noted that there are apparent inconsistencies among several of the different tables. data period of 1977 to 1979 For example, Table III-1 gives for the Marshall Islands for the period 1955-1975 and Table III-5 gives data for the infant mortality rate for 1976. In Table 111-1, the infant death rate per 1000 births for 1970 through 1975 is given as 28.3, 33.6, 25.4, 46.4, 21.l:and 37.0.’ However, Table III-5 indicates the infant mortality rate to be only 17.04. III-1 We used the data of Table in the following estimates; because it is more complete and it provides a self-consistent crepancies, set of data. However, the results can only be considered in view of the dis- as approximations. probably makes little real difference in view of the uncertainties the risk coefficients that were used. This in There is also a bias built into the data because of the inclusion of Ebye and Majuro in the overall Marshall Island rates. (particularly This arises from the different death rates infants) at these two locations. In many respects the population of Ebye and Majuro are quite dissimilar population because they have the advantages technical from the Bikini and disadvantages of a more environment. For the estimates the last 5 or 6 year average of the data were used because they are probably the most representative of current conditions. From this, the following were obtained: J. Rate of increase of the population 2. Infant 3. Overall death rate is 0.54% per year. 4. Birth rate is 4.2% per year. death rate is about has been about 3.2% per birth. 3.8%/year.