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Health Physics

Table 1. Estimated distribution of ‘Cs activity on particles of
specified diameters.

Activity (%) of total

Medianparticle
diameter, jum
(range)

MI "Cs
distribution

Alternate '°’Cs
distribution #1

Alternate '*’Cs
distribution #2

5 (2.5-7.5)
10 (7.5-12.5)
15 (12.5-17.5)
20 (17.5—22.5)
25 (22.5—27.5)
30 (27.5-32.5)
35 (32.5-37.5)
40 (37.5-42.5)
45 (42.5—-47.5)
50 (47.5-52.5)
55 (52.5-57.5)
60 (57.5—62.5)
65 (62.5—67.5)
70 (67.5—72.5)
75 (72.5-77.5)
80 (77.5-82.5)
85 (82.5—-87.5)
90 (87.5—92.5)
95 (92.5—97.5)
100+

12.5
11.0
10.0
9.0
8.0
7.0
6.5
6.0
5.5
5.0
4.5
4.0
3.5
2.5
1.8
1.2
0.9
0.7
0.3
<0.1

16.6
11.6
9.3
8.1
6.9
6.2
5.4
5.0
4.4
3.7
3.3
2.9
2.6
2.3
2.0
1.8
1.5
1.4
1.2
=1.0

23.6
11.7
75
5.3
3.9
3.0
2.4
2.0
1.6
1.4
1.2
1.0
0.9
0.8
0.7
0.6
0.6
0.5
0.5
<1.0

two alternative distributions, also shown in Table 1,

varied the fraction of '*’Cs on particles greater than 50

pm slightly from the distribution labeled MI.
The distribution of activity and of the number of
particles within the stem and the assumedspherical head
of the nuclear debris cloud were based on assumptions
from previous publications on meteorological modeling

of nuclear debris clouds. Here, we assumed that 12% of

the activity was deposited in the stem as derived from

data on NTS nuclear test debris clouds (Hoecker and

Machta 1990; NCI 1997). The remaining 88% of the
activity was assumed to be distributed homogenously
throughout the head of the cloud as well as the number of
particles in each size fraction. Another simplifying assumption made for the simulations was to release all
particles from the vertical axis through the center of the
spherical head of the debris cloud.

The total amount of '*’Cs in the debris cloud was

calculated from the estimated fission yield of eachtest.
Note that the fission yields used for normalization are
only estimates, since the fission yields for U.S. thermo-

nuclear tests remain classified. The '*’Csactivity for each
particle tracked by the model was basedonthetotal '°’Cs

produced and its apportionment amongthe total number
of particles using the distributions of activity as a
function of particle diameter (Table 1).

The debris cloud model used in these simulations is

acknowledged to be crude; hence, the fallout estimates

are subject to a large degree of uncertainty. More
sophisticated simulations of the distribution of activity in
the cloud and on various sized particles have been done

August 2010, Volume 99, Number 2

in other studies (see for example, Cederwall and Peterson

1990). However, since the particle-size and activity
distributions can vary significantly with the particular
conditions of a test such as height of burst, type of soil,
and yield (see companion paper by Ibrahim etal. 2010),
even simulations using more elaborate models (Cederwall and Peterson 1990) were forced to adjust the
activity, altitude, and particle size parameter estimates
for each test to achieve even marginal agreement with
actual measurements.
Once a particle is deposited in a HYSPLIT simulation, its location relative to points of interest has to be
determined. For that purpose, we defined rectangular
areas (termed “deposition domains’’) in which the deposition density of particles and activity were determined
by counting the number of deposited particles stratified
by release height and diameter. Each domain was defined by
the longitude and latitude of two points on opposing
corners. The coordinates of each deposited particle could
be tested to determineif the particle had deposited within
the domain bounded by the defined rectangle.
Marshall Islands nuclear tests

The HYSPLIT model was tested by simulating
fallout deposition from selected U.S. nuclear tests conducted at the Bikini and Enewetak test sites in the
Marshall Islands. Model-predicted deposition patterns,
density estimates, and fallout time of arrival were com-

pared against patterns and values reported in the literature (see Beck et al. 2010 for a listing of available data).
The large area of the Marshall Islands imposed
significant computational constraints becauseit is necessary to simulate very large numbersof particles in order
to delineate spatial or temporal patterns with satisfactory
reliability. Using a three-dimensional particle dispersion
model, the number of particles required for reasonably
precise simulations of multi-day fallout dispersion from
an entire debris cloud was too large to be practically
followed in a single HYSPLIT simulation. Thus, smaller

simulations were performed, each for a single release

altitude and particle size. In each of these simulations,
10,000 particles were released. The results of the simulations were then combined based on the assumed rela-

tive fractions of total '*’Cs activity released from various

portions of the debris cloud and the fraction of activity
released from variousaltitudes as discussed above. For
the individual altitude and particle size combinations,
release heights were varied from ground level to the
reported top of the radioactive debris cloud (DNA 1979)
in 1,000 m increments. The particle sizes simulated
ranged from | to 100 um in 5 ym increments and from
125 to 300 um in 25 ym increments and were selected
based on the typical range of particle sizes for weapons

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