the tropopause were discounted as a barrier, no reliable indications of the
significance of the height of the above-tropopause cloud existed.
more, even if these factors had been known,

Further-

the only available long-range

fallout data on land-surface bursts were limited to a single low-yield shot
(SUGAR of the 1951 JANGLE series), which meant that the assignment of reasonable values to isodose lines derived from the prediction system was both
difficult and possibly inaccurate.

Consequently, although the elliptical

approximations system of fallout forecasting was used on BRAVO to augment
other data,

it was limited to discussions of the relative merits of the

assumptions and scaling upon which it was based.

Since there was no real

basis for assuming the system was valid, it did not override the many other
factors involved in shot decisions.

Nevertheless, as the tests progressed

and observed fallout effects answered some of the many questions involved,
the system was relied upon to a much greater extent

(Reference 16, pp. 57

and 58).
The elliptical approximations method, or any other extension of the
Surface radex area beyond about 6 to 12 hours, was also limited by being
based on the ground-zero winds.

A new method was needed to accommodate

the changes in wind systems as particles drifted farther from ground zero.

Thus, during CASTLE a new technique was developed that utilized airborne
Particle trajectory analyses and progressive forecasts of wind patterns in
accordance with time and displacement aspects of the cloud.

Practical

methods were devised to apply such a system to the last three CASTLE shots
for a valid forecast period of H-hour to H+24

(Reference 16, Tab D).

Weather
Because fallout forecasts depend primarily on forecasts of wind fields,
the accuracy of the CASTLE fallout predictions was related to the accuracy
of weather predictions.

CJTF 7 in Operation Plan 3-53

(Reference 9)

as-~

signed responsibility to CTG 7.4 to administer and logistically support
weather elements to provide meteorological data and to perform radsafe
Missions required to conduct CASTLE operations.

TG 7.4 was responsible

for a four-island ground weather reporting element, an aircraft weather

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