CONFTDENT+L
face varying restrictions on maximum evacuation distances.

Boston, for example, is

limited to about 20 miles of movement to the east, south, and west by the proximity of
the seacoast and the Worcester, Providence, and Fall River targets, whereas Washington

is relatively unlimited, being boundedfor all practical purposes only by the proximity of

Baltimore and the coast.
The proximity of other targets and physical barriers also set upper limits on the amount
of dispersion that can take place. For example, although population density along the

East Coast averages about 370 persons per square mile, many of the targets, limited by
the afore-mentioned barriers, would still have concentrations many times that figure even

if the population within the target could be evenly dispersed in the area allotted to it. New
York, for example, would have concentrations of 2500 and Philadelphia 1500 persons per
square mile,

Evacuation Roads and the National Highway Program
The feeling has been expressed by civil defense planners that the recently enacted
public roads program would make mass evacuation possible or that the program could be

modified to make such a tactic feasible.* Figure 12 shows the proposed highway system.
It is clear that this 40,000-mile system is designed to connect majorcities and is not a system
of radial routes emanating from congested urban areas into the surrounding countryside.
It is not considered desirable to substitute radial routes for the intercity system. The
latter routes were selected in cooperation with the military as being of first importance to

the national defense, and are vital to the successful operation of plans for mutual aid in
the postattack period that have been developed by the variouscities.
It has been estimated that an expenditure of $10 billion is needed to provide for the

evacuation of every person in the 23 largest target areas to beyond a 15-mile radius in
14 hr.

An evacuation-highway program would in no way substantially reduce the requirement

for a shelter program to protect evacuees from fallout, and the cost of the entire evacuation-

highway-to-shelter program might be of the order of $18 billion.
Should Congress consider a program to construct evacuation highways, the earliest
year they could consider it would be 1957.

Congressional action in 1957 would probably

occur too late for enactment of cooperative state legislation that year so it would normally
be carried over until the 1959 session. ‘If states were urged to call special sessions, state
legislation could probably be speeded up by 1 yr. Regardless, it is evident that enactment
of legislation affecting highways requires several years.

Getting highway construction under way after legislation is enacted takes additional

time.

Routes must be selected, surveys made, land and property condemned, structures

built, and pavements laid.

This process normally takes at least 3 yr for each section of

highway.
By the time highway legislative and construction processes are completed and highWays are made available for evacuation, the us might well be into the intercontinental

ballistic missile (1cBM) era.
Feasibility

In view of the probable short warning times of attack, the long times required for

evacuation of targets, additional hazards that may further slow evacuation routes, the

limitations on realistic practice of mass evacuations, dispersion limitations due to geographic
*See, for example, the testimony of Governor Peterson in hearings before the Senate Committee on
Armed Services."

ORO-—R-17 (App B)

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