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Qver the weekend I made some elementary calculations as to the
effects of an underground weapon on our Zuropean friens, Since
time is short, I have not had time to recheck any af these calcu
etionas, but I'm passing thes on to you fer whatever they may be
worth,

We know the following:

(1}

Jangle *Sugar* produced a “hot-spot"

of roughly SO square miles, with radiation levels ranging from 7 r

to ls r.

(2)

This was a low yield waapom, (3) ‘Trinity produced

a sinilar hot-spot",

(4)

Cosages in the Trinity "hot-spot" were

sufficient to produce burns on cattle. (5) LA-S26 gives neasured
dosaces of 4.5 r at 3.3 hours after siot, 17 wiles frow saro, and

estiuated desages to the cows of 138 r

For purposes of scaling, let's assume that the size of the *thot~spot"
following the detonation of a 20 fT weapon at the surface will zo

as the cube root of the KT,

‘Thus for a 20 XT weapon we have an

arug of 2.7 x 50 = 135 square miles.

Let's assume that the radia-

tion level will increase directly with the ET, givine us dosages

FIED
CONFIRMED TO BE UNCLASSI
ICATION
DOE/OFFICE OF DECET SE
DATE:
M._L. KOLBAY, A.D.C

Wty

ranging from 140 r to 290 r,

To carry the arcumsnt one step further, if ome looks at the popula

tian density of some of the western “urepean countries, one can
eagily see that a relatively suall susber of weapons could abject
& relatively large mucker of paople to radiation desagas exceeding

taoge recomended for "%, nanely 30 r/day, Asan examplo, if one

takes Sreat Britain, whose population density is roughly 500 people
per eqeare allt, and one assumas 5 bombs are exploded on the surface,

sone 3.4 x

persons would be subjected to rediation dosares

considered significant from the standpoint of RF,

BYAUTHORITY OF DOE/OC

(Table of Surepean populations)

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