George M. Allen, Esquire Page 2 September 19, 1975 include the internal dose estimate. The correction needed to normalize to the Bikini exposure under these assumptions would be 1000 2,000,000 * 0.2 g.,7 ™ Se 24100,000- In other words, divide the entries in Table 3-1 by 100,000. a For reasons that are discussed in the enclosed report by Art Tamplin and me I believe you should use the upper limit estimate in Table 3-1 (i.e., the relative risk model - cases (b)}). Under these assumptions you could expect about 9,078/100,000 = 39.09 cancers per year, or one cancer every 10 years as a result of this exposure. You must also consider the genetic risk. The same BEIR Report estimated that the total incidence of all identified serious genetic diseases due to 5 rem per 30 year reproductive generation to the U.S. population would be between 1,100 and 27,000 per year at equilibrium. In addition, there would be an increase of between 0.5% and 5% in the ill health of the population. Since my Bikini assumption is equivalent approximately to 5 rem/generation to 1,000 people, the BEIR Report genetic effect estimate must be multiplied by 1,000/200 ,000,000 = 1/200 ,000 Thus, one could expect between 0.005 and 0.14 serious genetic effects per year, or up to l serious genetic effect every 7 years. Again, for reasons noted in the report by Tamplin and me the upper limit estimate should “2 used. In summary, based on the assunstions I nave made, tne combined risk would be 1 cancer every 10 years and one genetic effect every 7 years plus a 0.5% to 5% increase in overall ill health. 9052153