persons in the original 1957 Comparison group.
The similarity of these numbersdoes not suggest
the introduction of bias in death rates in subsequent additions in the Comparison population.
For the Rongelap exposed population, which
wasstatistically similar in age and sex distribution to the Comparison group when evaluatedin
1982 (Adams et al, 1983), this number is
234/100,000 (5 possible cancer deaths in 2139
person/years). The confirmed or presumptive
cancer diagnoses in the Comparison group are
given in Table 7, along with cancer deaths in the
exposed Rongelap population.
Table 8 contrasts the distribution of possible
cancer deathsin the Comparison group according to years of residence on Rongelap with that
of the exposed population. One of the eight persons dying of possible cancer in the Comparison
group was never known to be present on the
island. Furthermore, six of the eight spent only a
short time on Rongelap. However, for those six
that short time lay between 1958 and 1961, a
period when residual radioactivity would have
been higher than in subsequent years. One
hundred fifty-one persons in the Comparison
population were known to be on Rongelap at
some time between 1958 and 1961. Of the six
that ultimately died of possible cancer, four
were among forty-two who were not on Rongelap after 1961, whereas two were among the
one hundred-and-nine that were seen on Rongelap at a later date (Table 9). It is a statistical
oddity that even the latter two individuals were
found on Rongelap only once after 1961.
There are several points that are relevant for
those who would apply an epidemiologic analysis to these data:

The selection of the Comparison group began
in 1957 at Majuro when the group was initiated
with 86 individuals matched approximately for
sex and age with the exposed group of 86 individuals. Members of the Comparison group were
examined periodically thereafter at Rongelap or
elsewhere along with members of the exposed
Rongelap population. During 1958-59, after the
return to Rongelap island, the number of personsactively enrolled in the Comparison group
was increased to about 150. During the following
years up to 1974, another 31 persons were
added. In 1974-76, to make up for more persons
lost to followupor deceased, another 32 persons
were added. No additions to the roster have
been madesince that time. When all enrollees
are tallied, including those who have discontinued their participation in the annual medical
examinations, 227 persons have been examined
at one time or anotheras part of the Comparison group. Although someof the group werelost
to followup, there were 63 deaths recorded
through 1987. Some deaths may have occurred
in those lost to followup that were not brought
to the attention of the Marshall Islands Medical
Program. Furthermore, the death rate in subsequently added subgroups may not be the same
as that for persons in 1957. There is no way to
determine if there is any bias introduced into
mortality statistics as a consequence of these
events which were beyond the control of the
program. However, two points can be made.
First, since it is cancer mortality which is specifically in question, cancer deaths can be expressed in terms of total known deaths, thereby controlling to some extent for uncertainties in the
determination of total deaths. Therefore, on the

basis of information made available to the Marshall Islands Medical Program, 8 of the 63
known deaths (13%) may have been due to
malignant disease. In the United States cancer
mortality accounts for 22% of total mortality
(Silverberg and Lubera, 1987), and in the
exposed Rongelap group it accounts for 19"of
total mortality (5 of 26 deaths). Second, cancer
deaths can be expressed in person/years of
observation, thereby controlling somewhat for
persons lost to followup. When this is done the
cancer death rate for the 33-year observation
period is 171/100,000 (8 possible cancer deaths
in 4669 person/years) for the Comparison
group overall and 187/100,000 (4 possible
cancer deaths in 2136 person/years) for the 86

1. Since the Marshall Islands Medical Program
has not maintained a year-round medical presence on the different atolls where examinees
maybe found, causes of death were obtained in
many instances from records and verbal
accounts of health aides and family members
living on those atolls and from records and
death certificates at the Ebeye and Majuro hospitals. Autopsies are rarely performed in the
Marshall Islands.
2. Of the eight deaths thatclinically may have
been cancer-related, confirmation by tissue

diagnosis is available in only four. In the exposed
Rongelap population only three of the five
deaths attributed to cancer were confirmed.
18

Select target paragraph3