-ll-

'

For example, if the Bikinians returned in 1979 to Eneu, if the

diet consists of both local and imported foods as shown in Attachmenrc 1,

and if they spend no time on and consume no food from Bikini Island,
(Attachments 5-9, Curve 1)

their predicted maximum annual whole body

and bone marrow doses and their 30-year whole body doses (average for
the population) would be within the federal guidance of 170 mrem/yr
and 5000 mrem/30 yr.

Under these same conditions, exposures of the

highest individuals would be within the 500 mrem/yr federal guidance
for whole body and bone marrow but would exceed the 250 mrem/yr Enewetak
criterion.

Without imported food (Attachments 5~9, Curve 4) both

predicted average population and highest individual doses exceed the

170 and 500 mrem/yr federal guidance, while the 30-year estimate
of 4700 mrem/30 yr just meets the 5000 mrem/30 yr federal guidance
but exceeds the 4000 mrem/30 yr Enewetak criterion.

Furthermore, it must be recognized that there is a significant
degree of uncertainty in the dose estimates because of the need to

predict lifestyles of peoples.

For most situations it is estimated

that these values may be realistic to within a factor of two; under

unusual circumstances they may be within a factor of three.17

These,

then, would be the approximate error bands associated with the curves
in Attachments 5-9.

‘

A summary comparison of these curves with the federal guidance
and with the Enewetak criteria is given in Attachment 10.

I7Robison, W.L. and Phillips, W.A.,. "An Updated Radiological Dose
Assessment of Eneu Island at Bikini Atoll, UCRL-52775, 1979, in
draft.

Select target paragraph3