7.5.4

Uncertainty Analysis.
Because of the uncertainties associated with the radiological data or the

calculations used in the absence of data, as well as the uncertainties with
respect to personnel activities, confidence limits were determined where
possible for group dose calculations.

The uncertainty analysis quantified the

errors in available data or in the model used in the absence of data.

Confi-

dence limits were based on the uncertainty of all relevant input parameters;
thus, they have varied with the quality of the input data.

The possible range

of doses due to the size of the exposure group being examined were also
considered.

Typical sources of error have included orientation of the

weapons, specific weapon yields, instrument error, fallout intensity data,
time(s) at which data were obtained, fallout decay rate, route of personnel

movements, and arrival/stay times for specific activities.

References 1 and 3

discuss these in detail.

7.5.5

Comparison with Film Badge Records.

_#

When this reconstruction methodology was first developed in 1978 and
1979, the calculations of gamma dose were compared with film badge records for
two military units at Exercise Desert Rock VIII, Task Force WARRIOR and Task
Force BIG BANG, both of which were involved, either directly or indirectly, in
Shot SMOKY, Operation PLUMBBOB.

Where all parameters relating to exposure

were identified, direct comparison of gamma dose calculations with actual film
badge readings was possible.

The comparisons of actual and calculated doses

were remarkably good, and the resultant correlations provided high confidence
in the reconstruction methodology.

References 3 and 4 illustrate these

comparisons.
Film badge data may have been, in some cases, unrepresentative of the
total exposure of a given individual or group.

Nevertheless, such information

has proved extremely useful for direct comparison of incremental doses for
specific periods, e.g., validating the calculations for the remaining,

unbadged periods of exposure.

Moreover, a wide distribution of film badge

data has often led to more definitive personnel or activity groupings for dose
calculations and to further investigation of the reason(s) for such distri-

Reference 3 describes such distribution and subsequent investigation.

Sa
“i

173
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bution.

Select target paragraph3