Response to Question
a.

7

The estimate for cancer deaths in the United States was given in the
National Academy of Sciences report, “Biological Effects of Ionizing
Radiation” (BEIR) III (1982), as 16.4%. Since this 16.4% applied to a
heavily industrialized nation, the United States, the authors of the
DOE-1982 booklet used a value of 15% as being more applicable to the
population of the world, which includes a large fraction in lesser
Since the northern Marshall Islands are not
industrialized countries.
industrialized, the authors believed cancer deaths were more likely to
be about 15% than as high as the 16.4% in the United States.
The value of 10 deaths in 30 years from nonradiation-related cancer
among the Rongelap population was estimated by first calculating the
estimated number of births and deaths using information from the final
draft of the Marshall Islands Five Year Health Plan, prepared by the
Trust Territories Department of Health Services, Office of Health
Planning and the Resources Department.
From this Plan, the following
were obtained:
(1) Rate of increase of the population had been N3.8% per year
(2) Infant death rate: 3.2 deaths per 100 births
(3) Overall death rate: X1.54% per year
(4) Birth rate: 4.2% per year
Total population at end of 30 years (beginning with 233 people), P30:
P3(-J= 233 (1 +0.038)30
= 713
Number of Births, B:
B = 0.042x

233

/

03!l.038)x dx (X = time between O and 30)

B = 541

Deaths =

b.

c*

0.034x

233

/

~3!l.038)x

dx = 70.

Assuming 15% of deaths are due to naturally occurring cancer, 15% of 70
= -’10.
I do not know if DOE has a position on whether nonradiation-induced
cancers are a greater threat and risk to the Rongelap people than
radiation-related cancers.
Since, as stated in 7b above, I am not aware of any position held by DOE
in this regard, there is no basis for a statement.

Response to Question 8
a.

In the DOE-1982 booklet, estimates were given for the person, who in
some one year, might receive a radiation dose larger than anyone else
because his or her dietary practices and metabolism might have led to
intakes and retention of radioactive material greater than that of the
In this booklet, the highest average radiation doses
average person.

5

Select target paragraph3