\ ~119- \ the Soviet Union despite meticulous preparations should find it difficult to. carry them to success, Her expectation of success would depend largely on the defensive counter-measures which we had undertaken, There would be little danger to us from invasion attempts if we were able to rescue a large part of our naval and air power from atomic destruction. Since non-atomic weapons would come to play a decisive role in all operations accompanying or following upon atomic attacks and counterattack, our general technical and industrial superiority, if it survived atomic bombardment, would add to our geographical . advantages. The land masses of the Soviet Union, with their extended boundaries, could hardly be made equaliy immune to external penetfetial, Our forces, even if re- duced to light armament, should be able to strike at the Russian homeland, It does not follow that such invasion of Russian solwould bring certain or easy victory. History offers ample evidence that the contrary is more likely to be true. Our policy of determent, however, does not depend on whether we can defeat Russia; to be successful it need only prevent the Russians from expecting to defeat us. Even if the Russians did not fear ultimate defeat of the kind Hitler suffered, similarities between the situation of their country in a war with us and that of Nazi Germany in the last war could hardly fail to impress itself on them. They too could expect to enjoy considerable advantages in respect to preparedness in the initial stages of a war with us. They would, however, risk finding,the odds against them if they became engaged in a protracted war. The similarity would become even more strilcing if, as another land power with easy access to foreign territory, the Soviet Union planned to overrun some of the weaker countries which surround her, The result might again be that. defense against invasion would become more difficult. As a matter of fact, the Russians might plan an atomic blitz campaign in which the time-consuming occupation of weaker countries would be unnecessary and constitute a wasteful diversion of