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DEFENSE NUCLEAR AGENCY
WASHINGTON,D.C. 20305
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MEMORANDUM FOR Ge” oe
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ISCM (Mr. Niles)
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Feb
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8
Operation Redwing Final Draft
While it's clear that our astute and diligent investigator
could at best infer certain information from the predicted patterns
in the history, it is by no means clear to me that more than fission
yields could be roughly estimated.
The argument that one could
then obtain total yields from the predicted cloud heights is true
only if one iterated on the calculations with some insight,
in
my Opinion, because predicted cloud heights are not given in
the draft.
I believe, but have not verified, that ground burst
assumptions were made to complete the calculations in all cases.
However, if one did not already know the assumed parameters of
the event (yield, HOB, fission yield) I believe calculations would
not yield meaningful results.
Therefore, I believe we could hope
to reclaim DoE's decision on predicted patterns.
If you agree,
I recommend we pursue this course of action.
2.
The question of whether we
(DoD)
should attempt to convince
DoE to declassify Pacifie Test yields is not one which I believe
we can profitably address.
I see no hope of a successful conclusion
to such a course of action, and also see no profit for us if it
were successful.
DAVID L. AUTON, PhD
Chief, BEHR
SO0009UK8