-4-
One must also consider the genetic risk.
The same
BSEIR Report estimated that the total incidence of all identified
serious genetic diseases due to 5 rem per 30 year reproductive
generation to the U.S. population would be between 1,100 and
27,000 per year at equilibrium.
In addition, there would be an
inorease of becveen 0.5% and 5% in the ill health of the
population.
Since my Bikini exposure assumption is equivalent
approximately to 5 rem/generation to 1,000 people, the BEIR
Report genetic effect estimate must be multiplied by
1,090/200,000,000
=
1/200,000
Thus, one coulé expect between 0.005 and 0.14 serious genetic
eiftects per vear, or up to 1 serious genetic effect every 7
v@ars.
Again, ior reasons noted in the report by Tamplin and me
che upper limiz estimate should be used.
In summary, based on the assumptions I have made,
the combined risx would be 1 cancer every 10 years and one
genetic effect every 7 years plus a 0.5% to 5% increase in
overall i11 heaita.
Tais rather simple illustrative calculation does
not include wnat is undoubtedly a minor correction to account
for differences in the age distribution of seople of Bikini and
the U.S.
vopulation
(1967
statistics).
Also,
not included is the
risk associates with internally deposited radioactivity.
Derending on the case involveé it may be appropriate
to roughl:' dousle the risk
estimated above to include the internal
vadiation extisire resulting from the fooc chain.
One can make
ns for diiferent assumptions about tne dose
rate and <=nea number of people involved.
presented with tn1s
type of
The people of Bikini
estimate could decide whether it is