,

4
Rorigelap and Utirik Residents - 1954 to 1980”, adds to this
worry. This report indicates that while the maximum
deviation from ‘the average value of the daily activity ingestion
rate for members of an age subgroup was no greater than a
factor of 3, the population distributions illustrated a
activity ingestion rate. The
factor of 5 times the mean
greatest variation in intake was observed to occur in infants, and of 5 times the mean activity ingestion rate.
Infants, children, and adults 20 to 40 years of age, ingested
more activity each day than adolescents and persons over 40.
It is therefore very important to know what ages subgroups
will receive the highestiexposure.
I am not at all certain we
know which group this i-s. It may not be adult males or
females. It may be infants born several years after return.
How do we explain if doses to infants are greatly
underpredicted?
My advice is that LLNL’s use of averages or mean values, and
conversion factors ~’here there is no data, in calculations of
dose to individuals is OK so long as a factor or factors are
introduced to give some assurance that these doses are not
underpredicted for age groups receiving the highest exposure
and that standards are conservatively applied.
My feeling is
that the uncertainties in our dose estimates are larger than
we have admitted, and there may be important factors
influencing dose we have not yet taken into account.
I find
no comfort in the fact that some of the most important foods
dose-wise, foods that are known to be a significant part of
the diet, are still not yet growing at Enewetak and the
radioactivity values used were averages derived from
radioactivity concentration ratios involving average plant and
soil data that come prir,arily from experience at Bikini.
With these concerns in mind I urge that the dose predictions
for population groups in this draft be considered the low end
report
Of a range of possible estimates, and that LLNLtS
should give an indication of the high end of the range as well.
This could be done by updating the diet used in their 1977
report using Naidu’s food intake levels. Naidu claims these
needed, i.e.,
may represent maxi,mum intake, which is what is
the maximum
intake for a population group. I think the Naidu
numbers can be defended as a conservative “no imports” diet
for such a group. Also, I urge that the 250 mrem~year and
4,000 mrem/30 years be recommended to DOI for use in comparing
the dose to the highest individuals and to the population
with Federal standards in the interest of providing some
degree of assurance that the standards will not be exceeded.

Select target paragraph3