in
NV
From the analysis of uncer fainty in
population-average dose, the relati
2}
®
between cumulative exposure time t a
confidence limits of D(t) uncertainty
a 15
1
Figure 21 was calculated. Figure 22h
how uncertainty in D(t) is predicted fo become
effectively independent of time after ~5 y of
E ;
g
©
-
3 os _
o
a
°
5
a
3
Go
R
o
Rongelap residence, by which timd residual
10
15
2
£42
30
Time (y)
interindividual variability in expected dose
from hypothetical residence on Rongelap Island
starting in 1995 as ratios of the corresponding
value
the
that D(30) > 1.0 cSv is ~1% (Figure $B). Based
Figure 19. Two-tail 95% confidence limits on
population-average
and is characterized by confidence lint:
a factor of 2 of (D(t)). In particular,
of
this
dose
(horizontal line) at specified residence times.
lving 500
people starting in 1995, the charactegization of
uncertainty in population-average dofe implies
the
population-average
lifetin
D(Lifetime) shown in Figure 24, whi
and an 87% chance (i.e., it is more kely than
not) that zero cancers will arise as <
@
9°
Cumulative fraction
ah
fallout-related exposures on Rongelap
2
o
Ny
o
>
2°
nn
be available. It is not clear, howeve
local-foods-only assumption would best be
reflected in an analysis of unde
variability of the type conducted hert
this assumption is substantially at
0.5
1
1.5
2
25
3
Maximum expected 1-y dose (mSv)
Figure 20.
Estimated distributions of
interindividual variability in the lifetime
maximum of expected annual doses corresponding
.to hypothetical residence on Rongelap Island
starting in 1995. Distributions corresponding to
the LLNL imports-available model diet (bold
curve) and a hypothetical local-foods-only diet
assuming twice the local caloric intake shown in
Table 20 (light curve) are shown.
by a factor of two).
As discussed] above in
reference to Figure 18, a local-foods
that assumed twice the caloric inta
corresponding LLNL model diet
approximate 5-fold increase in expectPd dietary
dose and 3.3-fold increase in expected
1-y dose to potential 1995 Rongelap ree
49