FORECAST Fe.LL=OUT PLOT (5) Starting from ground zero ond going out 15 to 20 milcs on the fall-out plot of the 125 micron particle, draw cn arca of approximutcly 150 to 200 squarc milcse The line bounding this arca has a value of from onc fifth to one tenth of the valuo obtainod by Equation 1. If the winds aloft are lew in: speed (5 to 20 knots) thon this arca will be highly contaminated. If the winds aloft are stronger (30 to 80 knots) thon this arca will be smollor and not as nighly conteminnted. (6) In thoevent that the tropopause is lower than 35,000 ft. msl, she fall-out will bc somewhat grceator than indicated above and the time of fall~ wut of the maximum contamination will be two hours or less for a 10 to 40 kT tcewor shote If the tropopause is above 42,000 fte msl, the full-out will be less +nan indicated, and the timo of fall-out of the maximum contamination will be thre<c hours or more after H-houre (7) Normally the maximum fall-out arca will be in a radius of from 49 to 80 milcs from ground zero, depunding upon the dircetion ands peod of the If the winds aloft arc rolatively lew in speed (10 to 20 knots) the winds cloft. sull-out in the immediate vicinity of ground zero will be greatcr end the “dish= cut aud "missile" fall-out within 10 to 20 miles of ground zero will be much grostcre Therefore at PG, in the event of a 10 to 30 KT 300 fte tower shot, Groom Mince will bc most likely to get contaminated with a 2 to 10 rountgen intcgratcd infinity cose if the winds are from the South, S.: or West ond week. In the event thet the wind specd cloft is high (40 to 80 knots) then the meximun fall-out arca will throaten towns such as Tonopah, Cralicnte, Fiochc, Pannea, Crystal, Hiko, ilemo, St. George, ctce The towns mcntioncd above may reecive from 5 to 30 rocntgon intcgratcd infinity dose from 2 15 to 40 KT, 300 ft. towcr shot. The most important factor in rcducing intensity of fll-out is unguler wind shcar. If the winds aloft arc moderate tostrong and the shcar is large (90° to 180°), thon the fall-out will be minimal, sines th. contamination will be sprced over a larger arene Diy, T:vada {5 aporoxinately 179 niles from ground zero, honeo 14 wlll not come under the patirun fall-out, It wiil reacolvoe fren Ce5 to 2 rocntron integratod infinity doze. Howovorys Hiy, lovadea will probatty receive two or three such doses in viow of the prevailing winds at NPC. (8) The following exemele will be worked out in dcteil to illustrate the proccdure outlined nbove. Wind informetion obtcined at 0339 FST, 24 liarch 195.) Cloud hcight estimeted at 43,000 ft. msl, tropopause hcight, 40,000 M, ecquivelent KT from 30 to 40 KT. Level Wind Dircetion and Speed BO00 ft 80G0 106,000 12,000 14,000 16,090 120°/05 knots 1409/14 180°/16 190°/14 200°/14 210°/10 20,000 25,000 30,000 220°/18 230°/27 230°/27 40,000 250°/36 13,000 and Dircetion Factor 120°/0.8 409/243 180°/267 190°/2.3 200°/2,3 210°/1,7 220°/2 220°/:..7 236°/tet 210°/12 230°/8e1l 2:20°/503 240°/26 st This pleces the maximum falleout at 42 miles from ground zoro on borring or 32°. The maximum integrated dosage is, from Equation 1, o a+ +n 35,000 ‘Moighted ind Spocd uNultiplicetion ( 30 « A. = — _B = ) pes ( 30670) os Ds ( 30+14 -1) 2 5 30 r intcgrated rocntgens y2 80 rocntgens _ “a 111 Ge at & per wre, emp na -. ae ?