Projected lifetime cancer risks @ C. E. LAnp ETAL. Table 1. Census-based total Marshall Islands population by sex and census year (RMI 1987). Census year 203 than Majuro, 1.07 for mid-latitude atolls other than Kwajalein, and 1.05 for Rongelap and Utrik. The census reports for 1958 and 1973, but not 1967, 1935 1958 1967 1973 Males 5,480 7,175 9,658 12,335 Females 4,966 6,753 9,267 11,800 gavedistributions for the entire MI population by sex and Sex age interval, as shown in Table 2 (RMI 2003, Table 2.7). Using what might be termed a “global enumeration algorithm,” we applied the 1958 sex-specific age distributions to all atolls for 1948-1957, and interpolated 12,000 - # Female (projected) @ Female (data) —— Male (projected) a Male (data) al Z / Population Size 10,000 }- linearly between the 1958 and 1973 distributions for 1959-1970. Two exceptions were 82 members of the Rongelap community who received very high radiation doses from exposure to fallout from Castle Bravo on | March 1954, while on Rongelap (64) or Ailinginae (18), and 157 membersof the Utrik community who received 10-fold lower, but still substantial, doses while exposed 8,000 on Utrik to fallout from the same event. Both groups were enumerated in historical documents (see for exam- 6,000 - 4,000 1930 +» + + 1 2 i 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 Calendar Year Fig. 1. Fitted Bezier cubic splines expressing yearly interpolated, sex-specific population numbers for the entire Marshall Islands population, based on census results for 1935, 1958, 1967, and 1973. ple, BNL 1975) by age and sex when they were evacuated several days later. For community members who were not present at the time of Castle Bravo, numbers of people andtheir distribution by year, age, and sex were estimated using the above-mentioned global enumeration algorithm. Radiation dose Estimation of tissue-specific radiation absorbed doses to bone marrow, thyroid gland, stomach, colon, and other organs andtissues from fallout-related internal 8000 (ingested) and external radioactive sources is discussed in the companion papers (Bouville et al. 2010; Simon et al. 2010b). External doses were assumedto be essentially —?;— Majuro —4— Other southernatolls —#— Kwajalein 8 T 5 Population Size 6000 |- —— Other mid-latitude atolls —O— Rongelap and Utrik Table 2. Distribution of Marshall Islands population by age and sex in 1958 and 1973: numberof persons and percent (%) (RMI 2003). Age group (y) 2000 - 0 1945 <1 1950 1955 1960 1965 1970 Calender Year Fig. 2. Estimated population sizes over time for Majuro, 13 other southern atolls, Kwajalein, 6 other mid-latitude atolls, and the Rongelap and Utrik communities including membersnotpresentat the time of the Castle Bravo test on 1 March 1954. clearly indicates a substantial trend over time of migration to the two population centers from nearby as well as remote atolls. The populations of Kwajalein and Majuro increased over 1948-1970 by factors of 4 and 2.5, respectively, compared to 1.2 for southern atolls other 1-4 5-9 10-14 15-19 20-24 25-29 30-34 35-39 40-44. 45-49 50-54 55-59 60-64 65-69 70-74 75-79 80-84 85+ Total 1958 male 1958 female 1973 male 1973 female 268 (3.8) 246 (3.7) 485 .23° (3.9%) 409.19* (3.5*) 7,080 (100) 6,681 (100) 12,305 (100) 11,784 (100) 1,078 (15.2) 1,073 (16.1) 1,951.77* (15.9%) 1,784.81" (15.2°) 1,162 (16.4) 953 (14.3) 2,023 (16.4) 1,876 (15.9) 782 (11.1) 703 (10.5) ‘1,550 (12.6) 1,538 (13.1) 452 (6.4) 476 (7.1) 1,379 (11.2) 1,385 (11.8) 411 (5.8) 426 (6.4) 1,070 (8.7) 975 (8.3) 462 (6.5) 443 (6.6) TAl (6.0) 770 (6.5) 421 (6.0) —-390 (5.8) 489 (4.0) 446 (3.8) 386 (5.5) 387 (5.8) 429 (3.5) 432 (3.7) 294.(4.2) —-291 (4.4) 427 (3.5) 362 (3.1) 317(4.5) 274 (4.1) 358 (2.9) 369 (3.1) 201 (2.8) 231 (3.5) 357 (2.9) 359 (3.1) 201 (2.8) 220 (3.3) 328 (2.7) 312 (2.7) 231(3.3) ‘178 (2.7) 263 (2.1) 249 (2.1) 151 (2.1) ‘112 (1.7) 159 (1.3) 189 (1.6) 120(1.7) ‘102. (1.5) 113 (0.9) 139 (1.2) 50(0.7) 53(0.8) 63.64°(0.5) ——-56.91* (0.5) 50(0.7) 57(0.9) —-63.64° (0.5) «6 1.21° (05°) 43(0.6) 66(1.0) —54.73°(0.4*) 70.88" (0.6") “1973 age detail apportioned according to 1958 detail.