Projected fete cancer nsks @C E Lano er av Rongelap exposed cohort (78% with 90% uncertamty limits 39% to 91%), but 19% (4% to 45%) for Utrik, 8 4% (1 7% to 20%) for Kwajalem and the mid-latitude atolls, and 22% (04% to 60%) for Mayuro and the southern atolls In conclusion, the reader 1s reminded thatthe present analysis 1s not an epidemiological study but, mstead, an apphcation of existing mformation, gamed m recent years from epidemiological studies of other exposed populations, about the relationship between radiation dose and subsequent cancer nsk This mformation has been combined with new, refmed estimates of radiation doses to the populations of different atolls m the Marshall Islands, as discussed m the compamion papers Our conclusions are as follows (1) a substantial number of cancers have already occurred orare projected to occur in the future (about 170 but perhaps as many as 380or as few as 44) that would not have occurred in the absence of fallout exposure from nuclear testmg m the Marshall Islands, (2) over half of projected past and future cancers among members of the exposed Rongelap Island commumity (1, those exposed to Bravo fallout on Rongelap Island and Ailmgmae m 1954) are radiation-related, and (3) with the exception of thyroid cancer, the overwhelmimg majority of cancers that have occurred or will occur among persons exposed only on atolls and islands m the mid- and southern latitudes are likely to be baselme cancers unrelated to radiation exposure Acknowledgments—This work was supported by the Intra-Agency Agree mentbetween the NabonalInsbtute of Allergy and Infectious Diseases and the National Cancer Institute, NIATD agreement #¥2 Al $077 and NCT agreement #¥3-CO S117 REFERENCES Beck HL, Bouville A, Moroz BE, Simon SL Fallout deposition in the Marshall Islands from Bikim and Enewetak nuclear weapons tests Health Phys 99 124-142, 2010 Bouville A, Beck HL, Simon SL Doses from external irradi anon to Marshall Islanders from Bikim and Enewetak nuclear weapons tests Health Phys 99 143-156, 2010 Brookhaven Natonal Laboratory March 1957 medical survey of Rongelap and Unk people three years after exposure to radioactive fallout Upton, NY Brookhaven Natonal Lab oratory, 1958 Brookhaven National Laboratory A twenty year review of medical findings in a Marshallese population accidentally exposed to radioactive fallout Upton, NY Brookhaven National Laboratory, BNL 50424, 1975 Conard RA, Dobyns BM, Sutow WW Thyroidneoplasia as a late effect of active exposure to rachoactive 1odine in fallout J Am Med Assoc 214 316-324, 1970 Cronkite EP, Conard RA, Bond VP_ Fhstoncal events associated with fallout from BRAVO shot Operation 213 Castle and 25 y of medical findings Health Phys 73 176186, 1997 Division of Cancer Epidermology and Genetics, National CancerInstitute, National Institutes of Health, Department of Health and Human Services Estimation of the baseline number of cancers among Marshallese and the number of cancers attributable to exposure to fallout from nuclear weaponstesting conducted in the Marshall Islands Report prepared for the Senate Commuttee on Energy and Natural Resources Bethesda, MD National Cancer Insitute, 2004 Foley J, van Dam A,Feiner $, Hughes J Computer grapmcs pninciples and practice New York Addison Wesley, 1992 Hamilton TE, van Belle G, LoGerfo JP Thyroid neoplasia in Marshall Islanders exposed to nuclear fallout J Am Med Assoc 258 629-636, 1987 Henderson BE, Kolonel LN, Dworsky B, Kerford D, Mon E, Thevenot H_ Cancer incidence in the islandsofthe Pacific Nat Cancer Inst Monogr 69 73-81, 1985 Hughes CK, Tsark JU, Kenm CK, Alexander GA Cancer research studies 1n native Hawanans and Pacific Islanders Ann Epidemol 10(8 Suppl) 849-S60, 2000 Iman RL, Shortencarier MJ Fortran 77 program and user’s gunde for the generaton of Latin hypercube and random samplesfor use with computer models Albuquerque, NM Sandia National Labs, NUREG/CR 3624, SAND 83 2365, 1984 Kocher D, Apostoae, Henshaw RW, Hoffman FO, Schubauer Bergan MK, Stancescu DO, Thomas BA, Trabalka JR, Gilbert ES, Land CE Interactive Radioepidemological Program (REP) a Webbased tool for estimating probabil ity of causation/assigned share for radiogeme cancers Health Phys 95 119-147, 2008 National Cancer Institute SEER Cancer Statistics Review, 1973-1994. 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