DEC 11 1981

1203 Shattuck Ave


Berkeley CA 94709

December 8, 1981


Dr. W. J. Bair
Batelle Pacific Northwest Laboratories
PO Box 999
Richland, WA 99352
Dear Dr. Bair:





Thank you for your letter of Dec, 2, regarding dose and risk
figures given in "Melelen Radiation Ilo Ailin In Bikini" (MIB).
I have been in touch with the R@bison group and have received
a great deal of information on the calculation of dosage. In fact, I have

just returned from Bikini where they are on one of their periodic visits.
Dr. Robison has been kind enough to let me see the current draft of his

final report dealing with the atoll.

Our job is to review the calculations of dose and risk for the
Bikini people (and of course to report our findings to DOE).
Since the booklet
(MIB) written by you and Drs Healy and Wachholz summarized the position for
the Bikini people, it is very important that we understand how you arrived at
the statements made in it.
In asking for clarification, I am not arguing in
any way about what you have done; I am only trying to learn precisely what

was done.

As I read the draft report (Robison's) and compare it to MIB, it
seems to me that some clarifiaation is needed because the two are not

identical. In saying this, I do not mean to imply that the two documents
contradict one another. By way of specifying what I need to know, let me ask

you a number of questions, based on page 22, column 2.

The first entry of 6200 mrem is the largest amount of radiation

a person might receive in one year.
(a) I don't see where that figure occurs
in the Robison draft. Did you make some assumption about dose distribution
and then calculate this maximum? (b) In the Robison draft, Table 23 gives
a maximum annual dose of about 2000 mrem, but the meaning of maximum here
relates oo the maximum year rather than the 'maximum person" in a given year.
2) The 30-year cumulative dose of about 45000 mrem is in agreement
with Robison's Table 27.
3) Robison has not calculated any risks. You state on page 20 that
you h(?) calculated risks from the studies of what I take to be BEIR, November
1972. What factors and conditions did you use?

You assume a population of 550 for a period of 30 years and project

24 cancer deaths over that period, I suppose on the basis of an annual

death rate of about 0.9% and 16% of that being due to cancer. Were the
rates based on Marshallese statistics? If so, I would like to know

how I could gain access to them.

(over, please)


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