8-

BASES FOR CALCULATION OF RISK ESTIMATES USED IN
“THE MEANING OF RADIATION AT BIKINI ATOLL”

409864

‘“i)

*“ $%wRkd’ “--’-“=~cg
Estimates of cancer and birth defect} risks for the Bikini populations
were based on a number of assumptions.

Some of these assumptions re-

sulted from consultation with other scientists including members of
o
~ the BEIR committees.
6
“+
+&4-I.

Risk coefficients from BEIR-I were used because BEIR-111

had not been accepted by any U.S. government agency.

lie elected to

use the values as given in BEIR-I rather than the revised values
al
:,

based on increased age of the population shown in Table

V-4 of

BEIR-111.

7
w

2.

For estimates of cancer risk both the relative risk coef-

ficient and the absolute risk coefficient were used to give a range
of estimated risk.

The absolute risk coefficient gives a lower value,

is less variable with the population and is not dependent upon the
spontaneous cancer incidence, which is not known for the Bikini population.

The relative risk coefficient gives a high value, but since

it is based on the spontaneous cancer incidence,

which is unknown for

the Bikini population, it is probably less reliable than the estimates
calculated from the absolute risk coefficients.

3.

For estimating increased cancer incidence,

the bone marrow

dose was used because it was slightly higher than the whole body dose.
This probably introduced a small element of conservation.

—

Select target paragraph3