qgonet
winds and observed winds during the period of GRAVO were vithia

these observational limits.

On the last specific wind forecast

issued at EH minus 8 hours, there were ten (10) winds forecast to
be above 10 kmots which can be campared with the observed winds

taken fram the CURTISS at ERAVO hour.

Of these ten (10) winds,

siz (6) differed by 10 degrees, two (2) by 20 degrees, one (1)
by 30 degrees and one (1) by 40 degrees.

80 per cent of the

forecast winds which can be checked in the immediate locale ware
Within observational limits imposed by the equipment itself.

The

ezrers of 30 desrees and 40 degrees were the forecasts for the
levels immediately above and below 10,000 feet.

6.

COICLUSIONS:
a.

Weather conditions during the five days prior to ERAVO dey were

indicative of a favorable trend for BRAVO, involving on an average,
easterly winds below 15,000 feet, with winds of a southerly component

above.

ERAVO minus 2 and BRAVO minus 1 days were especially favorable

fran a fallout point of view.

The weather situation presented at z

minus 6 hours for a 2) hour period was setisfactory; however, an une
favorable trend was predicted to occur during the following 24 hows
singp northwest winds were forecast for the 10,000 to 20,000 foot
eva. This trend was borne out by leter observations.
be

The forecast wind directions were well within the normal forecast

exstor, which must be anticipated.

Forecasts of the seme precision as

those made in ereas of dense observation networks cannot be expected
in this area.

The forecasts of rincs eloft for BRAVO were, nevestbe-

presest
less, approaching the limits of biman ability which the ext et

alors.

ae

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