FEB 14 'S4
14:15
FROM KAMAN SCIENCES CORP
PAGE . 825/06
TO 17a22952154
{c) Air routes through Wake and Kwajalein:
favorabla.
(a) Surface routing inside 500 miles consi-
dered in its relation to all lkmown transient shipping: favor-
able,
ec.
Selentific
(1) High altitude sampling operations - favor(2) Light transmission for scientific experinents
apie.
favorable.
6.
CONCIOUSIONS: ~
-@ Lack of fallout information from previous shots
of comparable yield was a serious handicap.
b. The yield of wes three times the most probable Value and twice the probable upper limit with the result
that more debris was carried up and diffused over a much larger
area than was thought possible.
e.
The original source cannot be considered as a
point or a relatively small area but must be considered to be
an area of about a hundred miles in diameter.
also depends on yleld.
This diameter
d. The radioactivity of the debris can be considered
proportional to yield. Radioactive material in the SHRI
cloud was thus two to three times was was expected.
@,
An appreciable fraction of the observed fallout
ean only be accounted for by assuming that it originated in .
the stratosphere.
For such particles :to reach the ground at
observed times, their diameter must have bean in exeass of 100
microns.
f. forecast for shot time winds at shot time was
essentially correct. Variation from forecast trajectories was
approximately 10 degrees in significant upper levels; unfor-
tunately, the variation was in the wrong direction (See Figure
3). The small variations observed at lower levels were also
in an unfavorable direction. Nevertheless, the accuracy of
the winds alot’ forecast approached the limits of accuracy of
the wind observations themselves and were well within the nor=
mal foratest error.
g- The fallout pattern extended from the Bikini
Atoll to the east northeast. Considerable widening of the
pattern took place due to diffusion. The intensity of the
4