Both Figure 1 and Table 1 indicate to ue that a steady decline in adult
average body-burden ig to be expected in future yeare.
There sre short-term
increases which we eannoc prediet in advance and these enuse the measured
walues to vary from the expected decline.
However, over a long peried ef tise
increases will be balanced by decreases below che expected value.
Our estimates indicate to us that an individual's dose equivalent rate
@
from all sources at Roengelap may vary by a facter of three above the average
adult value and thie would be due to living pattern variations.
Again over a
long period of time an individual "s dose equivalent (che integrated dose
equivalent rate) would be expected to be ecloge to the average value.
The
average effective dese equivalent we estimate from 1957 te 2007 ds 0.042 Sw
(4.2 rem).
In quantitative terms if the radiation expesure at Rongelap leads
to a Gaussian error distribution ef dose equivalent, then the probability of
exceeding the 50-year integrated average-adult walue, 0.042 Sw (4.2 rem), by
more than a factor of five is 1 out of 100,000.
This faetor of five
eerresponds te a 50-year integrated effective dose equivalent in exeess of 0.2
Sv (20ren).
This in turn corresponds to an average dose equivalent rate
greater than 0.004 Sv per year (400 mrem per year) for 50 years.
We have tabulated the average 1984 whele-bedy counting results in Table
2-
The maximum burden did not vary from the average vaiue by more than @
facter of three for any ege grouping at either ef the three lecations
Listed.
We have summarized, in Figure 2, recent i3leg body-burden results for
adults which we have obtained over the past few years.
greatest at Rongelap and lowest at Enewetak.
5001613
Hedy burdens are