Chapter tf

Executive Summary

The chances of an accidental release of radioactive material have been made as remote as possible.
Public concerns about safety are fueled by concerns about the testing program in general and
exacerbated by the government's policy of not announcingalltests.

INTRODUCTION
During a nuclear explosion,billions of atoms
release their energy within a millionth of a
second, pressures reach several million pounds
per square inch, and temperatures are as high as
one-million degrees centigrade. A variety of
radioactive elements are produced depending on
the design of the explosive device and the
contribution offission and fusion to the explosion. The half-lives of the elements produced
range from less than a second to more than a
million years.
Each year over a dozen nuclear weaponsare

detonated undergroundat the NevadaTestSite.!

The tests are used to develop new nuclear
weapons and to assess the effects of nuclear
explosions on military systems and other hardware. Eachtest is designed to prevent the release
of radioactive material. The objective of each
test is to obtain the desired experimental information and yet successfully contain the explosion underground(i.e., prevent radioactive ma-

terial from reaching the atmosphere),

HOW SAFEIS SAFE ENOUGH?

doubt.’’ But the Containment Evaluation Panel
has no guidelines that attempt to quantify or
describe in probabilistic terms what constitutes
for example, an ‘‘adequate degree of confidence.’’ Obviously, there can never be 100
percent confidence that a test will not release
radioactive material. Whether *‘adequate confidence’”’ translates into a chance of | in 100, | in
1,000, or 1 in 1,000,000, requires a decision
about whatis an acceptable level of risk. In turn,
decisions of acceptable level of risk can only be
made by weighing the costs of an unintentional
release against the benefits of testing. Consequently, those who feel that testing is important
for our national security will accept greaterrisk,
and those who oppose nuclear testing will find
even small risks unacceptable.
Establishing an acceptable level of risk is
difficult, not only because of the value judgments associated with nuclear testing, but also
becausethe risk is not seen as voluntary by those
outside the testing program. A public that
readily accepts the risks associated with voluntary activities—suchas sky diving or smoking—
maystill consider the much lower risks associated with nuclear testing unacceptable.

Deciding whetherthe testing program is safe
requires a judgmentof howsafe is safe enough.
The subjective nature of this judgment is
illustrated through the decision-making process
of the Containment Evaluation Panel (CEP)
which reviews and assesses the containment of

testing program can be obtained by reviewing
the containmentrecord. Releases ofradioactive

containmentusingthe terms ‘‘high confidence,”’
‘adequate degree of confidence,’’ and ‘‘some

conditions of the release:

each test.? The panel evaluates the probability of

HOW SAFEHASIT BEEN?
Someinsight into the safety of the nuclear

material are categorized with terms that describe
both the volume of material released and the

‘Currently, all U.S. nuclear test explosions are conducted at the Nevada Test Site.

?The Containment Evaluation Panel1s a group of representatives from various laboratories and technical consulting organizations whoevaluate the
proposed containment plan for each test without regard to cost or other outside considerations (see ch. 2 for a complete discussion).

Select target paragraph3