* rereervours =~ - -; 34] SESSION VIE Preparation; there aaa, bow me achomaurate there ga. deowe mah cee uee @antita Peouyer. PUMEEAM Tt ete cack tu the payee bh oeocral Laster a, WAHRKEN What sbout the agricultural productian AYLES That woutdalt be tuo arly fate Proatatdby co Co ab pereent of pre-war capacity could survive, WARHEN Our econemy ts built od avery short string nowadays, Take, for iostance, the seed that’s planted. PE looked into thig cor- siderably on a corimuttee, In the bcde evere «a cong time avo. fanuly nad a nnchen parden aia complete set of pardentny Couls, shovels, rakes, hoes, even ploughs and things. Tovay you seldom tine this anywhere, and it's ne longer the horse and the mule that could eat off of the prass, Nowyou've got big agricultural farting, A tractor has replaced horse and mule and the tractor needs diesel fucl or gasoline and frequent repairs, Whereis the seed to plant for next year’ It's usually net on the farm; it comes from a big silo somewhere and it requires railroad transportation, AYRES: All of these issues have been studied in yreat detail again, WARREN: [think they all contribute to that recovery. AYRFS: SRI has done a detailed study some years ago of precisely this question. Vhey assumed much bigper attacks thin we're talking about and they still concluded that the surviving production would be 50 to 70 percent. DUNHAM: You're speaking about how much preparation, how much stockiling ot seed, available, how much of this, that, and the other thing 1s This will make a tremendous difference initially, TAYLOR: [ woulda like to ask a very broad inteprating question to try to focus on what we've been discussing in both sessions. The gereral result of these studies that have been made=they've been made for the government by Central Research Institute, a large number of organizations— seems to be that @ postulated attach, presumahiy as the result of general nuclear war, without any further civil defense preparations beyond what we have now, will produce an eifect on our society, and presumably on the opponent's society, which 's aot at all catastrophic.