SESSION VI 339 WARREN: Some of it has been covered but not all of it. Can we go back to some of your prognostications? I have a clear idea of how deep we would fall and how much deeper the gradual decay would be before we would have an uprising, but I don't suppose one could put numbers on this even if the assumption of 1,400 megatons on the United States is true. Can you? You've been thinking aboutit. AYRES: You mean numbers like production, potential production? WARREN: Yes. AYRES: Roughly, I'd say of the order of 50 percent of raw productive capacity would survive, with actual production in the first year somewhere in the neighborhood of 15 to 20 percent of pre-war, EISENBUD: Let's talk about something we do know about. We know what Japan was about and we know what Western Europe was like, a good deal of detail, Suppose Japan didn't exist, what would have happened in Europe? Would that typhus outbreak in Italy have been a serious situation if we didn't rush doctors in with serum? What would have happened in Japan? AYRES: I should imagine that both Europe and Japan would have been many, many years recovering without the help that we pumped in. I think it might have been ten years, DUNHAM: I think we're talking about two different things. One is talking about epidemic disease and the other thinking more of economic recovery. EISENBUD: No. I'm talking about everything, Chuck. I feel, from the little bit that I saw, that the key to survival in World War II or the key to recovery was the fact that we came out of it with an intact productivity that was of enormous potential and we had the will to use it to help both enemy and friends, Now, [I think even with conventional weapons one could extrapolate what we saw in World War II by a factor of 10, let's say, and increase this level] of destruction tenfold and then extend that to the United States on the assumption that the weapons deliveries systems would have been different had the war been fought twenty years later, One could visualize very serious problems in survival even with conventional armaments, Now, to extrapolate that further to nuclear weapons, I wonder if we don't have a body of experience that would make