\ \ SESSION VI ‘ _ ‘ AYRES: 309 How many do you need inthe first year, is the point” Let's say a pipe plant is put out of commission? EISENBUD: items. —< “ You might need hundreds of them. They are big AYRES: Probably you'll cannibalize. Wwe SPCAR: Back in 1951 the Federal Civil Defense Administration conducted a rather intensive study of the items produced in Cleveland, Ohio, As I recall, we found 6 cr 8 quite important products that weren't produced anywhere clse in the country, The Industry Evaluation Board of the Department of Commerce routinely addresses itself to the critical essentiality of industrial and other products and facilities. These are rated according to their essentiality. Unfortunately, both of these efforts were classified, and the result of the Industry Evaluation Board's work has never been declassified as far as I know. . hor | ‘ \ | AYRES: But can you say what would be the impact of the loss of those 6 items? : \ \ : SPEAR This was the object of the Federal Civil Defense study that I mentioned, There were various studies by ODMprior to the amalgamation of FCDA and ODM, taking the result of the I.E, B.'s work and studying the impact on the nation of the Joss of varicus pro-_ ducts and facilities. AYRES: The point lam making is that one might conclude from what you have just said that the whule economy grinds toa halt. I thinkthat would not be the case. SPEAR: Ye \ No, but there are some critical vulnerabilities, AYRES: Critical, but how critical? _ SPEAR: Well, I don't know how to generalize on how critical they might be. The delivery of oil by pipeline, gas by pipeline, clectric power transmission are some of the things, as well as industrial products, that I, E.B. has been dealing with. As you conduct war-game attacks on this country. you can sce the effects of taking out same of those things. Over the years, some of these vulnerabilities have been lessened. Communications is one good example where there has been a hardening of facilities.