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8. Military Effects of a Test Cessation. The foregoing conclusions
have been concerned with current and prospective warhead performance
characteristics, The Working Group has not attempted to assess the
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military effects that would flow from stoppage of further weapons tests.
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In other words, it has not examined the effects on performance and
availability of weapons systems and alternate systems and strategies
that might be devised to compensate for warhead performance limitations.
It believes that detailed systems evaluation studies should be undertaken
by the Department of Defense on a priority basis with the necessary
allocation of a number of experienced scientific and military personnel
to this task.
9. Effects of a Cessation on Weapons Laboratories. The effects
of a test suspension on the weapons research laboratories will depend on
the terms of the moratorium, its duration and the general political
climate and, in particular, on the belief of the laboratory personnel on
the permanency of the test suspension. If laboratory personnel believe
that the suspension is termporary, which might be the case if the agreement called for the automatic resumption of testing if progress were not
achieved on the general problem of disarmament, considerable work
might be possible, leading to a backlog of ideas and untested developments to be tested upon resumption of tests. If the laboratory personnel
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believed that the test cessation would be made permanent, the weapons
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groups in the Laboratories would certainly deteriorate rapidly.
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