September 10, 1982
POPULATION ESTIMATES
The following population estimates are derived by simple ratios
from the Bikini calculation {copy attached) for a population of 550.
These calculations predicted 1277 births, 164 deaths over a period of 30
years and a final population of 1684 after 30 years for an initia)
population of 550.
Deaths in 30 years:
Births in 30 years:
164 _ deaths in population of interest
550
initial population of interest
1277 _ births in population of interest
550 ~ initial population of interest
Population after 30 years:
1684 _ population after 30 years
550
initial population of interest
Also from the Bikini population, the estimate of the full 30 year
dose received by children born during the 30 year period is 0.36.
RISK COEFFICIENTS
Both BEIR I and BEIR III risk coefficients are used.
follows:
These are as
BEIR I
Cancer~-Minimum:
Absolute risk of leukemia (26 x 107® rem!) +
30 year elevated risk for other cancers
(61 x 10-© rem!) = 87 x 107 rem-}.
Maximum:
Genetic Effects:
Relative risk of leukemia (37 x 107& rem7!) +
lifetime elevated risk (421 x 107& rem7!) =
458 x 10-© rem-!,
0.2% per rem in first generation.
BEIR III
Cancer--Minimum:
Absolute lifetime risk of cancer for continuous
exposure, 67 x 107& rad! (low LET) based on
linear quadratic model,
Maximum:
Relative lifetime risk of cancer for continuous
exposure, 430 x 107& rad-!, based on linear
model.