aw" HEADQUARTEHS JOU-T TASk FORCE 132 Washington 25, DC 102216 5 December 1951 MEMORANDUM FOR: SUBJECT: Atomic Energy Commission, Division of Military Application. ATIN: Captein Harr; Haight, USN Telephone Query Concerning Special Forecasts for Continental Atomic Tests 1. In answer to your telephone query of this date concerning the advisability or eventual worth of including in the command weather brief- ing a 6-7 day forecast of cloud trajectory, the following is submitted: a@. The validity of such a forecast is highly questionable, as the weather conditions affecting cloud trajectory are not forecastable with any degree of accuracy over such a period. This is true because smell errors in both space and time will be reflected in wide departures of the cloud from forecast positions. be A rough estimste of cloud tracks could be furnished, but if such an estimate were received by persons not completely familiar with atomic testing, undue alarm might be created, or false conclusions reached. 2, It is suggested that a more useful purpose might be served if daily position reports and 2) hour forecast positions were issued to persons who absolutely require the information, with the reservation that the limitations inherent in such predictions be emphasized. -< RG é weees YS DOE ARCHIVES Commander, USN 326 U.S. ATOMIC ENERGY ‘Collection i Box COMMISSION Staff Weather Officer __2MA CLASSIFICATION OANCEL AUTHORITY: DOE.pDP cs R.G. BOGER Ps 2996 Folder(Lets. | toe. Matin _—_—_——porpens)HD. 9 1063 las } Lit ?