~182
Where this fallout will fall out
3.
What will happen to it
(a)
how much will decay or otherwise be harmless
(ob)
how much will directly effect man as internal or
(c)
external radiation
how much damage, if any, man will suffer from it
Using the knowledge now available, how much information does one
need to postulate concerning the characteristics of future weapon
firings (test or war) so that one could predict with a certainvy
appropriate for policy-making purposes the same sort of information as discussed above for future firings?
l.
Is such a prediction possible even assuming unlimited
information concerning the firing characteristics? How
would it be made?
Is a postulated rate of firing (yield per unit time)
meaningful?
What in principle does "present rate of
firing" mean?
Is a postulated rate of firing sufficient
information by itself for making the sort of prediction
named here?
How does one take into account such problems as divers
sites of firing, firing of weapons whose characteristics
are not known, differences in weapon type and burst
Are the present criteria for biological damage adequate and
are the related measurements adequate so that one could
predict with a certainty appropriate to policy-making the
future hazard, if any, owing to future weapon firings ~even if he could forecast how much fallout there would be
and what would happen to it? If the criteria are adequate,
how are they put together?
JCAE
If one had before himself a working definition of hazard
that was satisfactory from a moral or ethical, social,
political, and economic point of view, and if this definition
was stated in terms of measureable or observable pnenomena
in nature (including man), does sufficient information
exist so that he could determine, again with a degree of
certainty appropriate to policy-making, whether or not a
hazardous situation exists now or will exist in the future
for various possible circumstances of weapon firings and
radioactive fallout? Could he determine the degree of
hazard?
If their answers are "no", is it possible to state
what information is lacking and how it might be obtained?
2