RADIATION STANDARDS, INCLUDING FALLOUT
45
contaminated areas, levels up to a few thousand times those predicted
for weaponstests through 1961 would occur.
Let us look at one example of the possible delayed or long-term
medicaleffects of this nuclear war. Using a straight proportionality
of dose versus effect as an upper limiting case as was done by the
United Nations Scientific Committee on Effects of Atomic Radiation
in its 1958 report, I estimate that Sr®° induced leukemias in the 120
million survivors and their immediate progeny would not exceed
12,000 cases in the ensuing 30 to 40 years. It might be very much
less than that figure. The 12,000 figure is based on the assumption that
these persons would carry an average body burden of 200 strontium
units throughoutthis period of time.
I have assumed that these same individuals would have received an
additional 4 rad of whole body radiation over the same period of time
and arrive at a limiting figure of 14,000 additional cases of leukemia
from that cause. On the other hand, for leukemia induction among
the 20 million survivors who were estimated to have received in addition an average exposure of 200 rad during the emergency, there is a
high probability of there being 60,000 cases of leukemia as a result
of this exposure.
For this calculation I have used the 1960 NAS-NRC report as a
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basis. The latter predicted 100 cases per 100 rads of high dose rate
exposure per million population in the ensuing 10 to 15 years. This
gives a total number of cases of leukemia of the order of 90,000 and
an average incidence rate of 2,600 cases per year, but it is possible that
in some 1 year a peak of 10,000 cases might occur. After this 30to 40-year time period the rate would fall off as an increasing percentage of the population would have body burdens of Sr? of Jess than
200 strontium units and have whole body radiation exposures of less
than 4 roentgens. It is apparent that delayed effects of radiation
would not begin to approach other causes of death in any year.
Countermeasures to reduce both external exposure and contamination in food in the period after the war might be worth consideration
as a way to reduce the part of such effects which would result from
the addition of the first two components to the radiation exposure
burden with which the survivors and their progeny would face the
future. Ina war of greater magnitude, where residual radioactivity
would be higher and high levels would be present over a muchgreater
area of the country, the value of instituting appropriate countermeasures would be considerably greater.
Representative Price. Thank you very much, Dr. Dunham.
Dr. Dunham, on page 8 you state that there is still to be determined the relative roles of horizontal and vertical transport in the
holdup of high-altitude equatorial debris.
What studies on this are
presently being made and whatelse should be done?
Dr. Dunnam. We havelaid on ever since the Russian tests began
last fall an intensification of our studies both by sampling at high
altitude and by taking advantage of a device developed at the Argonne National Laboratory by Dr. Gustafson, a gamma spectrometer
which can be sent up in a small balloon and will telemeter its readings
down to the ground. We have had several successful flights from
Thule, and we have demonstrated that around 110,000 feet there is
a very definite layer of radioactive material. Also there is a layer
in the general vicinity of 70,000 feet. I think the people who will
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