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torial region than it is in the polar regions. If we knew how much
fission would be detonated in the U.S. Christmas Island nuclear test
series I think the prediction panel this afternoon could give you a reasonable numberas to what the potential risk mightbe.
But. since we do not know those numbers, there is no reason why we
should be expected to predict the dose commitment. I would say
that these estimates and those given by the Federal Radiation Council
might possibly be accurate to a factor of 2. It does not concern
me in the slightest that these numbers may be off by a factor of 2.
I think we are dealing with something that is so relatively insignificant in the general scheme of things that a factor of 2 will make
no difference. Besides, I wish we could introduce into the test philosophy something that has been effectively interjected into the philosophy regarding the peaceful uses of atomic energy.
Representative Price. Doctor, Mr. Ramey has a question to ask
at this point.
Mr. Ramey. He might finish.
Dr. Lancuam. I am just about finished.
Thatinterjection is the concept of potential risk versus the potential
gain. I for one would say that if there is any remote hope that the
further testing of nuclear weapons is contributing to the defense of
this country then the risk we are dealing with is certainly worth taking.
This is the only question that concerns me. That is, that in three
congressional hearings we have predicted or tried to predict the risk
involved. I am surprised to see that our predictions of that risk
have held up reasonably well through these three hearings. The
question in my mindis, Whois evaulating the potential gain? Is it
absolutely necessary to the defense of this country that we continue
to test weapons? [If it is, then we have no choice butto test.
Thank you.
Mr. Ramey. On your comment of being off by a factor of 2,
doesn’t concern you, would you mind elaborating on that a little bit.
If a person is off by a factor of 2 on his bank account, say, or if he
is writing a staff report and misses by a factor of 2 he is usually
somewhat embarrassed about it.
Representative Hosmer. It depends on whether the bank account is
a million dollars or a dollar.
Dr. Lancuam. I was going to say if one was drawing a dollar a
year and his salary was doubled he would not feel very concerned
about his raise, would he?
Mr. Ramey. I take it what you are saying is that these factors are
so conservative on the extent of fallout. and on the measures of the
amount of risk if your figures were off by 100 percent you wouldstill
not have a level that would really cause damage or hurt the population, is that right?
Dr. Lancuam. That is right. I would add one otherthing.
I really believe if they are off, the odds again are going to be
off on the conservative side. So I think in the first. place we are
apt to be over on the conservative side.
In the second place, if we
are off a factor of 2 insofar as the general health of the American
people is concerned, 1 don’t think it is a matter of concern, certainly
compared to many other things that we accept in everydayliving.
Representative Prick. Mr. Tolitield, do you have any questions?