NOTE 14

RISK FACTORS

The recent revisions in dosimetry for Japanese bomb survivors have
indicated that the risk factor for cancer mortality of 1 x 10-* should be
raised 2 - 10-fold (Shimizu et al 1987; Preston and Pierce 1987). The
Japanese experience, however, was based on high dose, high dose-rate
exposure, whereas the Rongelap experience under discussion is very low
dose and very low dose-rate. The difference in dose-rate involves a
factor downwards of 3 - 10-fold, and as a result the two changes cancel
one another. To be on the safe side, however, I have chosen to raise the
old BEIR factor from 1 to 2.5 x 10-*. The matter is presently under
discussion by the United Nations Scientific Committee on the Effects of
Atomic Radiations, which is preparing a report for the International

Committee on Radiation Protection.

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Select target paragraph3