The authors ofthe Lawrence Livermore Nati10Mmai CaDOrdtury kepure, UCRL-52853 Pt 4, September 30, 1982 developed a figure of 135 millirem. The authors of DOE-1982 booklet multiplied it by 3 to obtain an estimate for the highest dose any person might receive. Question 7 a. The worldwide estimate for cancer deaths was given in BEIR III as 17.5%. The authors of the DOE-1982 booklet rounded this down to 15%. The value of 10 deaths in 30 years from non-radiation related cancer among the Rongelap population was estimated by first calculating the number of deaths using information from the final draft of the Marshall Islands Five Year Health Plan prepared by the Trust Territories Department of Health Services, Office of Health Planning and the Resources Department. From this Plan, the following were obtained: 1. Rate of increase of the population had been ~3.8% per year 2. Infant death rate ~3.2% per birth 3. OQverall death rate ~0.54% per year 4. Birth rate is 4.2% per year Total population at end of 30 years (beginning with 233 people), P3q: P39 = 233 (1 + 0.03830 = 713 Number of Births, B: B = 0.042 x 233 30 [ (1.038)X dx (x = time between 0 and 30) 0 B = 541 Deaths = 0.034 x 233 30 i (1.038)X dx = 70 0 Assuming 15% of deaths are due to naturally occurring cancer, 15% of 70 = ~10. I do not know whether DOE has a position on whether non-radiation cancers are a greater threat and risk to the Rongelap people than radiationrelated cancers. If the estimates of radiation doses published in Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Report, UCRL-52853 Pt 4, September 30, 1982, are correct and if the risk coefficients for radiation induced cancer published by the National Academy of Sciences can be accepted, then as shown on page 39 of the DOE-1982 booklet, less than one additional cancer death due to radiation from the atomic bomb tests would be expected compared with 10 occurring naturally over the next 30 years.