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10
ANNEX4
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OPERATIONS ORDERNO, 1-53
INTELLIGENCE ESTIMATE
1, SITUATION
“""
""""go The atmosphere of tension existing betweenthe U.S. and
its allies and the USSR and its satellites stands littlechancé of
diminishing during the next six (6) months. ‘There 48 a possibility ~~
that it may increase as the result of poesible further Soviet Inspired
actions againstnations on the geographicalfringe of the Soviet bloc.
20
GENERAL SOVIET CAPABILITIES:
“7 "ga. The armed forces of the USSR are maintained in an advanced
.. state of military readiness. As a result, the Soviets can undertake
military aggression with little or no advance warning.
3.
SOVIET CAPABILITIES AS APPLIED TO JTF SEVEN
a. Naval Capabilities: The Soviets have twenty-one (21) ocean
' patrol and thirty-seven (37) medium range type submarines in the Pacific
Ocean area, Because of endurance limitations of the medium range type,
it is believed that the ocean patrol type would be the better for
operations in the ENIWETOK and BIKINI areas. It is estimated that at
least four (4) to six (6) ocean patrol submarines could be maintained
_on, station in theFNIWETOK-BIKINI. areaindefinitely and for short
“periods this number could be increased.
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Air Capabilities:
(1)
Aerial photo and radiological reconnaissance of the
ENIWETOK-BIKINI area from Far East bases (Sakhalin
or the Kuriles) is within Soviet capabilities.
Without refueling, the TU-4, modified for long range
reconnaissance, could remain in the target area for
only a brief period, making necessary prior Soviet
access to CASTLE (Restricted, SI) plans to permit
proper timing of reconnaissance flights. Assuming
wpe ee
that the Soviets have developed techniques equal
to the U. S., one outbound refueling would extend
the time over the target area to over four (4)
hours, There is no-evidence, however, that the
Soviets have developed refueling capabilities. The
Third Long Range Air Force, stationed in the Far
East, is presently re-equipping with TU-4's.
is estimated that its current TO/E strength
TU-4's is approximately one hundred (100).
It
for
No
TU-4's are known to be modified for long range ©
reconnaissance.
(2)
TASK GROUP 7.4
The only Soviet aircraft know to have greater
range potentialities than the TU-4 is the Type 31.
prototype heavy bomber which was observed in flight
for the first and only time to date in the July 1951
Aviation Day air show in Moscow. If equipped with the
JU-022 turboprop engine, the Type 31 would have a’
OPRS ORDER NO. 1-53
ANNEX A, APNDX 1
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