102

EFFECTS OF IONIZING RADIATION

week. This is in contrast to other mammals
where deaths from the acute phase are uncommonafter the 30th day.
6.53

Probability of Survival as Related to
Symptoms

Hence, individuals exposed in the lethal
range (where some, but not all, will die in the
first several weeks following exposure) can be
divided according to symptomsand signs, into
groups having a different prognosis. Thus
they maybe divided into three groups in which
survival is, respectively, dmprobable, possible,
and probable. Tt will be apparent that there is
no sharp line of demarcation among the groups.
Group 1.—Survival improbable:
If vomiting oceurs promptly or within a
few hours and continues and is followed in
rapid succession by prostration, diarrhea,
anorexia, fever, the prognosis is grave;
death will almost definitely occur in 100
percent of the individuals within the 1st
week. There isno knowntherapy for these
people; accordingly, in a catastrophe, attention should be devoted principally to
others for whom there is some hope.
Group 2.—Survival possible:
Vomiting may occur early but will be of
relatively short duration followed by a
period of well-being. In this period of
well-being marked changes are taking place
in the hemopoietic tissues. Lymphocytes
are profoundly depressed within hours and
remain so for months. The neutrophile
count is depressed to lowlevels, the degree
and time of maximum depression depending uponthe dose. Signs of infection may
be seen when the total neutrophile count
has reachedvirtually zero (7-9 days). The
platelet count may reach very lowlevels
after 2 weeks.
External evidence of bleeding may occur within 2 or 4 weeks. This
group represents the lethal dose range in
the classical pharmacologic sense. In the
higher exposure groups of this category
the latent period lasts from 1 to 3 weeks

withlittle clinical evidence of injuries other

thanslight fatigue. At the termination of

the latent period, the patient may develop
purpura, epilation, oral and cutaneous
lesions, infections of wounds or burns,
diarrhea, and melena. The mortality will
be significant. With therapy the survival
time can be expected to be prolonged and
if sufficient time is provided for bone marrowregeneration the survival rate will be
increased.
In groups 1 and 2 the blood picture is not as
well documented asin group 8. There are good
clinical reasons to believe that in the lethal
range the granulocyte depressions will be
marked and below 1,000 per mm? during the
2d week. Good observations in Japan (21,
22) confirm this contention. However, in the
sublethal range it takes much longer for the
granulocyte count and platelet count of man
to reach minimal values, as compared to other
mammals (see Chapter IV and reference 10).
Despite the chaotic conditions that existed in
Hiroshima, the data of Kikuchi and Wakisaka
(22) shows that there was a more rapid and
marked decrease in Groups 1 and 2 than in
Group 3.
Group 3.—Survival probable:
This groupconsists of individuals who may
or may not have had fleeting nausea and
vomiting on the day of exposure. In this
group there is no further evidence of effects of the exposure except the hematologic changes that can be detected by
serial studies of the blood with particular
reference to lymphocytes and_ platelets.
The lymphocytes reach lowlevels early,
within 48 hours, and may showlittle evidence of recovery for many monthsafter
exposure. The granulocytes may show
some depression during the second and
third week. However, considerable variation is encountered. <A late fall in the
granulocytes during the 6th or 7th week
may occur and should be watched for.
Platelet counts reach the lowest on approximately the 30th day at the time when

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