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The Soviet Union claims, or inspires rumors to the effect, that
it-has tested a thermonuclear weapon or device but the United
States has no evidence tc substantiate these claims cr rumors.
Prior to the first Soviet atomic explosion in 19h9, and to a
lesser extent crior to a second and third in the fall of 1951, there
were many rumors and roports to the effect that the Soviet Union had tested cr was about to test an atomic weapon. Some of these reports
are believed to have been Sovict-inspired. It is possible that such
reports may appear pricr to the United States test. The recent
reports of Italian experimentation in the thermonuclear ficl
_
give impetus to such reports whether cr not
Soviet~-inspired.
ob
If sufficient speculation arises and credence is being given
to such reports, it may become necessary for the United States to
issue some statement. In view of the fact that, should the Soviet
Union have a successful large-scale thermonuclear test, the United ©
States would be almost cortain to know that some nuclear event had
taken place within the Soviet Union, it is. suggested that, in
keeping with previcus invariable practice, a Presidential announcement should be made to the effect that the United States has had
no evidence cof a nuclear detonation in the USSR since Octchber 3,
1951 advising the American people that it is believed that these
reports are untrue. Care should he taken, however, not to reveal cn
uhat basis the United States is able to make such a denial.
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The Soviet Union tests a thermonuclear weapon or device after
the United States dces, with or without announcing it.
This contingency is the mest likely of the vorious contingencies
considered. It is suggested that specific recemmendaticns nct be
drrived at at this time on this centinsency.
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