| ANE1.
“
To formulate contingency suidance to minimize the political and psychological disadvantages which might accrue from
Seviet thermonuclear developmental SUCCCSSES.
2.
The United States has made a public announcement of every
3.
The Soviet Unien never cfficially confirmed that it tested its
eta ye ee
FACTS. BERING ON THE PROBLAM
1 Lett tegen eppeermemaciapans gencaeen emi teetp EE
Tt ae
ee eg tee ga
hae
A.
Sovict atomic test detected.
lu.
te ate
.
eet
Seviet tests of atomic weapens.
tm
‘first atomic weason in-19h9. Stalin's self-interviecow last fall and
the subsequent reiteraticn in the Soviet press cf the informaticn
contained therein is the only official Seviet announcement concerning
If the Soviet Unicn tests a lergs-seale thermonuclear wecoon
igen
or device, it is believed almcst cortain that the United States will
ave detected an explosicn within a short peoricd of time after its
Mere
ane
ecurrence, but whethor the United States will he able te determine
-that the é “plosicn iinvolved a large-scéle thermonuclear reaction is
less cartain and, in ony event, st Will take longer te determine this
ract than the fect-.of a2 muclear explosion. The Gctails of the
United States capability in this regard must nct be revealed.
Be.
DISCUSSION
1&fct
it is believed twniikely that the Soviet Unicon
ill test one before the United States does. Nevertheless,
P4ONN)