STATUS OF GLOBAL FALLOUT PREDICTIONS

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altitude sources. Although the more abundant weather data in the lower
atmosphere should make the low-altitude trajectories more accurate

than high-altitude ones (at least after the fact), local topographic irregularities can more than nullify these benefits, Without verification,
predicted and after-the-fact reconstructed trajectories are computedin
blissful ignorance. It is this gap for which constant-volume balloons,

the “tetrons,” could potentially provide data. Atpresent, it is likely that

most meteorologists feel that the path of a cloud of pollutants at the
surface can be as reliably tracked with meteorological data as in the

upper troposphere, but detailed proof is virtually nonexistent. Paralleling the absence of trajectory verification data at low altitudes is the

lack of experimental data on horizontal and vertical mixing after long

travel times.
In the writer’s opinion, the long-range transport, diffusion, and
removal of contaminants in the lower atmosphere deserve prime at-

tention,
Sources higher in the troposphere also present transport and diffu-

sion problems but, surprisingly, more is known concerning long-range
atmospheric behavior,

and terrain-induced mesoscale systems may

play less havoc with the predictions, One should incorporate, as some
investigators have already done, the

three-dimensional motion via

isentropic analysis and take advantage of high-speed computers. These

steps may improve ground-level-contamination predictions during nonprecipitating weather. However, for many, if not most, of the mid- or
upper-tropospheric radioactive clouds, the pollutant enters man’s environment during precipitation. Although there have been many excellent

studies of precipitation scavenging, the fallout forecaster still cannot

make a quantitative prediction of deposition in rain; therefore predictions are limited to qualitative statements.
The fate of debris added to the lower stratosphere can be pre-

dicted, in a broad way, with more confidence than for debris injected
elsewhere in the atmosphere because there has been more experience

with such sources, The physical models producing the stratospheric

transport have been narrowed to two: one is a version of the Brewer—
Dobson circulation and the other is the model for down-the-gradient
mixing along sloping surfaces. Both appear to yield similar fallout pre-

dictions for injections in most parts of the lower stratosphere. This
favorable state of affairs mainly stems from the multitude of nuclear
clouds injected into the lower stratosphere and followed by sampling

programs of the AEC, the Department of Defense, and the Public Health
Service. There is still much to be learned from tracers in the lower

stratosphere and much that can be gleamed from meteorological reSearch to improve man’s ability to predict stratospheric fallout. However, one has the distinct impression that atmospheric transport and

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